(Adds army statement, updates casualty figures)
BEIRUT, Oct 22 (Reuters) - The Beirut car bomb that killed a
top Lebanese security official will probably prove to be the
most destabilising attack in Lebanon since the 2005
assassination of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri.
What is less clear - and this is something that instils fear
in a society still scarred by its 1975-90 civil war - is whether
the attack was a reprisal or the start of a campaign of violence
by Damascus and its allies, suspected by many Lebanese of
trying to spread Syria's conflict across its borders.
Lebanon, which has yet to fully overcome its own wartime
sectarian divisions, is too fragile to withstand being enveloped
by a Syrian conflict that is beginning to mirror Lebanon's own
slide into fratricidal bloodletting.
Wissam al-Hassan, the security official who died with seven
others on Friday, was buried with full honours in an emotional
state funeral on Sunday at the Rafik al-Hariri mosque, the heart
of the former premier's reconstruction legacy in central Beirut.
The funeral turned into a political rally against Syria and
its local allies in Lebanon.
Hassan is thought to have been targeted because in August,
after a carefully planned sting operation, his Internal Security
Forces intelligence unit arrested a former Lebanese cabinet
minister close to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The minister, Michel Samaha, is charged with transporting
Syrian-assembled bombs to launch attacks on sectarian targets in
Lebanon. Two Syrian officers, including General Ali Mamlouk,
were indicted with Samaha in a humiliating blow to Assad and an
unprecedented move against Lebanon's dominant neighbour.
EVIDENCE UNCOVERED
Hassan also led the investigation into Hariri's murder and
uncovered evidence that implicated Syria and Hezbollah, although
both deny the charge. An international tribunal accused several
Hezbollah members of involvement in the murder.
"There is a probability that this will be the start of a new
period in which we will see more assassinations, bombings and
other problems," said Sarkis Naoum, a columnist and Syria
expert.
"Sectarian incitement is on the rise in the country and the
killing of Wissam al-Hassan brought things to a head. We may be
entering a very dangerous cycle. Anything might happen."
"It is not possible for the Syria conflict not to have
implications on Lebanon. The Lebanese have entered the Syria war
- one side is with the Assad regime and another is against it.
They are fighting each other by proxy," Naoum said.
Tiny Lebanon, with its combustible sectarian mix, is being
dragged into the Syria crisis with its rival Shi'ite and
Sunni Muslims fighting on opposite sides.
Lebanon's Shi'ite Hezbollah group backs Assad, a member of
the Shi'ite-based Alawite sect, in his fight against the
Sunni-led insurgency. Lebanon's Sunnis and allied Sunni powers,
notably Saudi Arabia and Turkey, support the Sunni rebels.
The killing of thousands of Sunnis in Syria has angered
Sunnis in Lebanon and across the region.
Hassan's attacker did more than just kill Lebanon's most
powerful intelligence brain, who collected data on all major
players and uncovered several plots in recent years. The killer
performed a public execution that sent a warning to all those
who dared challenge Syria in Lebanon.
INNER CIRCLE
Some analysts said the devastating attack against Hassan's
anti-Syria investigative establishment bore important
similarities to the blast that targeted Assad's inner circle of
security officials in Damascus in July.
"Whoever did this attack wanted to deliver a message that
they can reach anybody, that they can hit the highest level of
intelligence," said Beirut-based commentator Rami Khouri.
"Whoever did it wanted to say 'we can still strike'."
Opposition politicians and ordinary people at Martyrs'
Square saw Syria's hand in the bombing.
"Wissam al-Hassan has one enemy - Bashar al-Assad," said
Beirut MP Nouhad Mashnouq, a leading member of the March 14
opposition bloc led by Saad al-Hariri, son of the slain
ex-premier.
Mashnouq said the cases Hassan had brought against Samaha
and Mamlouk were actions against Syria unprecedented in the
history of Lebanon.
Despite the accusations from Lebanese politicians, both the
Assad government and Hezbollah condemned the bombing.
The immediate destabilising effect of Friday's blast can
already be seen on the streets.
Angry mourners tried to storm Prime Minister Najib Mikati's
offices in Beirut after the funeral, breaking through a security
barrier and scuffling with police who fired in the air. Four
people have been killed in clashes in the northern city of
Tripoli and five people were wounded in Beirut on Monday.
"Mikati leave, get out," chanted hundreds of protesters.
They also chanted slogans against Assad, whom they accused of
being behind the killing of Hassan.
The protesters blame Mikati's pro-Syrian and
pro-Iranian-dominated coalition government for failing to
provide security or respond effectively to the killing.
UNREST SPREADING
In a strongly worded statement on Monday, the Lebanese army
said the nation faced a critical time and pledged to act
decisively to "curb tensions, stamp out violations and prevent
Lebanon being transformed again into a place for regional
score-settling and stop the exploitation of Hassan's murder."
It warned that targeting public or private institutions
crossed a "red line", and it would respond.
Displeasure with Mikati came as spreading unrest raised
fears among Lebanese that their country could slide back into
the sectarian strife that haunted them for decades.
Mikati, a Sunni Muslim whom many see as unwilling to
confront Hezbollah, said he had offered to step down, but that
President Michel Suleiman asked him "to stay on to avoid letting
Lebanon slide into turmoil".
Syria's civil war is already being played out on the streets
of Tripoli in northern Lebanon, where fighting has erupted
between Sunni fighters and Alawites.
The Syrian unrest has often spilled into Lebanese border
villages with Assad's forces shelling them, saying they were
being used by rebels to smuggle in fighters and arms.
Officials close to Hassan, who had been under threat since
he pushed for Samaha's arrest, said he was using more than one
safe house and that only two close associates, including the one
who died with him, knew about his movements.
They suspect that Hassan's movements were followed after his
return on Thursday night from a trip abroad.
"There is a contentious history between Wissam al-Hassan and
Syria, Iran and their Lebanese allies (Hezbollah)," said one
security source, who declined to give his name. "All the
espionage and intelligence services of the world are present in
Lebanon and they pay huge sums of money for information and
there are many Lebanese guns for hire."
"TERRIBLE BUT NOT UNEXPECTED"
Khouri, a Middle East affairs specialist, said the Hassan
assassination was a logical extension of what has been happening
in Syria over the past 19 months.
"There has been a steady increase in violence and now we are
going to the next step of assassinations, bombings and maybe
clashes. It is terrible but it is not unexpected," he said.
Hassan was killed because he was leading the investigation
that led to the prosecution of some important figures, he said.
"It certainly reminds people of a string of assassinations
that followed Hariri's killing," Khouri said.
Some analysts said the perpetrators of the bombing - which
also wounded more than 80 - clearly aimed to push Lebanon into a
new round of violence. But although sectarian tensions are high,
Lebanese factions have no desire to return to civil war.
Despite persistent calls by Hariri and others for Mikati to
resign, many politicians and Western envoys sought compromise,
arguing that high-level resignations and political turmoil in
Lebanon were precisely what Hassan's killers intended.
Lebanon's sectarian-based politics are further complicated
by regional hostility. While the main Lebanese opposition has
long been aligned with Washington and Saudi Arabia, Mikati's
governing coalition is endorsed by Iran and Syria.
The bombing also heightened fears among Western powers -
which have criticised Assad and called on him to step down -
that the Syria war could ignite conflict across the region.
Augustus Richard Norton, a Middle East specialist at Boston
University, said it was too early to say who carried out the
bombing.
"However, there is no doubt that al Hassan's death will
bring smiles to the face of Bashar al-Assad and his cohorts," he
wrote in a commentary.
Hassan, a Sunni who opposed Syria and Hezbollah, was laid to
rest next to Rafik al-Hariri, whose assassination in a similar
manner seven years ago sparked widespread protests that
ultimately forced Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon
after 20 years of military and political dominance.
But despite the military pull-out, Assad retained influence
through his Lebanese allies in Hezbollah.
