ECB meeting eyed for clues on crisis

Investors are braced for signs on Thursday that the European Central Bank will soon start weaning banks off cheap and abundant liquidity given that expiry dates are approaching for the central bank's crisis measures. Skip related content

All 78 economists polled by Reuters last week expect the ECB to leave interest rates on hold at a record low of 1 percent this month when its decision is announced at 12:45 p.m. British time, with no change expected until late 2010.

The U.S. Federal Reserve made no change to policy settings on Wednesday despite growing confidence of a recovery, but the Bank of England is tipped to expand its quantitative easing program later on Thursday.

The vast majority of analysts expect the ECB to start withdrawing generous liquidity supplies before it raises rates, and futures pricing suggests market rates rising in early 2010.

Many of the emergency measures brought in to counter the financial crisis run only "beyond the end of 2009," meaning the ECB will have to decide soon whether to extend them or not.

Germany's Axel Weber fanned speculation that the central bank may reveal at least part of its hand on Thursday when he said last week that the policy of unlimited funds at main liquidity operations should be kept on, while very long-term liquidity operations could go sooner.

Weber is so far the only policymaker to announce his preferences for how the ECB should exit its support measures, and he said it was premature to set a concrete time-frame.

Still, analysts said the ECB could make it clear that the last scheduled one-year liquidity operation, due on December 16, will indeed be the last. It could also decide to bump up the interest rate at the operation, adding a margin over 1 percent, after discussions which started at 8 a.m. British time.

"They could take the November meeting as an opportunity to say they will start depleting the non-conventional measures," RBS economist Jacques Cailloux said.

"Weber's comments go in that direction so there is a chance that we get some hints on potential exits. We are looking for an announcement that they will not renew the one-year operation, which is in itself a first step towards an exit. Not renewing it is an exit."

MAY HOLD OFF

Others expect the ECB to wait with announcements about the 12-month operation and its wider exit plans until December, when it will have updated staff economic projections and the first forecasts for 2011, the crucial period for today's monetary policy decisions given the long lead time.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to confirm at his 1:30 p.m. British time news conference that rates are appropriate and that caution is needed on the economic outlook, with risks to inflation balanced.

Inflation remained negative in October, at -0.1 percent, but is expected to turn positive again in November given a 15 percent rise in oil prices in the last month.

Growth data over the last month have been encouraging, with euro-zone manufacturing activity growing in October for the first time in 17 months and its service sector expanding at its fastest in nearly two years. All this has boosted expectations that the 16-nation bloc returned to growth in the third quarter.

The European Commission on Tuesday revised up its growth forecast for next year to 0.7 percent and sees an acceleration to 1.5 percent in 2011, after a 4.0 percent fall this year. The IMF sees 0.3 percent growth in 2010.

One threat to that is the strength of the euro, which has risen 16 percent against the dollar in the last eight months and about 3.5 percent using the ECB's preferred trade-weighted measure.

Economists said those gains could give the ECB another reason to hold off with exit hints, especially without any similar indication from the Fed. "If (the ECB's) signal were to emerge before the Fed did likewise, the euro could be pushed higher and the euro area's nascent recovery, which owes a lot to foreign demand, will be threatened," Deutsche Bank economist Mark Wall said.

Economists are also keen to gauge the ECB's assessment of credit conditions, after a pick-up in new lending on a monthly basis and an easing in tightening their credit standards in Q3.

"The ECB may well take comfort that the panoply of 'enhanced credit support' measures, undertaken by both it and by governments, appear to have successfully avoided a credit crunch so far," Barclays Capital economists Julian Callow and Kerri Maddox wrote in a note to clients.

In an opinion piece in Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, ECB Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell said the analysis of credit developments was an important tool and should be used more comprehensively.

(Editing by Patrick Graham)