In 2010 military-ruled Myanmar will hold its first parliamentary election in two decades, the final step in what the generals call a "road map" to democracy. Skip related content
The junta has yet to set out how the poll will be conducted, although a constitution approved in a referendum last year provides some guide.
Critics have already dismissed the election as a ploy to legitimise and extend almost five decades of military rule.
WHY IS MYANMAR HOLDING ELECTIONS?
Sanctions have helped cripple the resource-rich country's economy and the regime's refusal to carry out reforms, release political prisoners or halt human rights abuses have made it an international pariah the West refuses to do business with.
Analysts say Myanmar wants to be accepted as part of the international community and boost trade. The generals know they must give up power -- nominally, at least -- to achieve this, but believe they are the only people capable of running the country.
WHEN WILL THE ELECTION TAKE PLACE?
No date has been decided and the generals have yet to draft laws that will detail how the vote will be conducted and who can stand. No election commission has been appointed and the junta has rejected international offers of monitors.
WHO WILL HOLD POWER IN POST-ELECTION MYANMAR?
A new constitution, drafted mainly by military officers and civil servants, was approved in a disputed referendum last year and stipulates Myanmar will be run by a civilian government elected by the people.
Key ministries like interior, justice and defence will be under the control of the military, which will also be granted a quarter of the 440 seats in parliament. Former generals can take additional seats not included in that quota, meaning some may retire to run in the polls.
The army commander-in-chief will remain the country's most powerful figure, senior to the president and able to tear up the constitution, appoint key ministers and assume overall power "in times of emergency".
WILL THE WEST MAINTAIN ECONOMIC SANCTIONS?
Analysts generally believe sanctions will continue.
However, an election that brings change without a full transition to democracy would sharpen the debate at a time when the United States at least is edging towards a review.
The view that sanctions have been counterproductive, serving only to impoverish the people and make the junta more hidebound, may be gaining ground. Against that, engagement by Asian neighbours has done nothing to loosen the junta's grip, either.
Washington has sketched out conditions for better relations, including the release of political prisoners, and could take this further after the election.
WHY IS AUNG SAN SUU KYI SIDELINED?
The hugely popular Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of independence hero Aung San, remains the biggest threat to military rule, as was shown when her National League for Democracy (NLD) party won 392 of the 485 parliamentary seats in the 1990 vote, which the regime simply ignored.
Because of her rousing speeches and her ability to mobilise tens of thousands of people for pro-democracy rallies, the junta has kept her under lock and key for 14 of the past 20 years.
WHO WILL TAKE PART?
The junta recognises 10 political parties, but it is not yet known how many intend to run. The NLD, the National Unity Party and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy -- the top three performers in the 1990 polls -- are expected to take part.
However, there are deep divisions inside the NLD between older members who reject the polls and younger modernisers who see them as a way to spread their views. Some say an NLD boycott could render Suu Kyi's party a spent political force.
Detained or not, Suu Kyi herself will not be running for office. A clause in the current and previous constitutions means her marriage to a foreigner -- late British academic Michael Aris -- and the British citizenship of her children disqualify her.
Analysts say the junta will form its own nominee parties fronted by civilian proxies. With more than 2,000 political activists in prison -- and probably barred from running if released -- the polls will be far from inclusive.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER THE ELECTION?
Than Shwe recently told U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon that the next time he visited Myanmar, he and his inner circle of army generals would all be civilians. But analysts expect the generals, or their proxies, to still pull the strings in a "democratic" Myanmar.
"There won't be change of any real substance, just a lot fewer people around in military uniform," said Myanmar analyst Derek Tonkin. "It's not so much the election that's important, more the uncertainty about what happens after it."
AND WHAT ABOUT THE TOP GENERALS?
Ageing generals Than Shwe and Maung Aye might take the opportunity to retire and hand over power to their army proteges, perhaps pulling the strings from behind the scenes. Junta number three Thura Shwe Mann, 62, is widely tipped to take the top job.
Analysts say Than Shwe is unlikely to take the role of president, which would require travel and diplomatic engagements, which he is known to dislike. He would also have to answer to the military commander-in-chief -- an unlikely prospect.
"Than Shwe will retire and put people in place who will hold on to power and always protect him and his family," said David Steinberg, a Myanmar specialist at Georgetown University. (Compiled by Bangkok Newsroom; Editing by Alan Raybould and Bill Tarrant)
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