Next year military-ruled Myanmar will hold its first democratic election in two decades, polls that critics say will be a sham resulting in no significant transfer of power to a civilian government. Skip related content
The resource-rich nation of 48 million people is heading for a period of uncertainty, with concerns about economic and social stability and whether the country will really become any more democratic after almost five decades of army rule.
Following are possible post-election scenarios:
COSMETIC CHANGE ONLY, MILITARY RETAINS POWER
Few believe the military will really hand over power to a civilian government. The new constitution guarantees the army 25 percent of parliamentary seats, and retired generals or army proxies are expected to run and win plenty more. The military will have jurisdiction over key ministries and reserves the right to take power at a time of national crisis.
Civilians backed, or at least vetted, by the junta will probably be given some government positions, but analysts say the power-hungry and staunchly nationalist military will still control the major policy and budgetary decisions.
"The generals have made sure they'll retain some power because they believe they are the only institution that can keep the country together," said Myanmar analyst David Steinberg, a Georgetown University academic.
... IN THAT CASE, WILL SANCTIONS REMAIN?
Most analysts believe the West will maintain sanctions if the election is deemed a sham, although the Unites States is reviewing its policy and other voices are saying that sanctions have done nothing to change the nature of the military regime.
One worry in the West is that sanctions are allowing the Chinese to strengthen their presence in neighbouring Myanmar.
A pipeline is scheduled to take gas from the country to Yunnan province from 2012 and an oil pipeline is also planned, which would allow Chinese tankers to avoid the Malacca Straits.
One concern in both the West and Asian countries is that such commercial involvement, as well as undermining Western sanctions, could bring a military dimension, strengthening Chinese military clout in the region.
GRADUAL TRANSFER TO CIVILIAN CONTROL
In the long term, Myanmar could undergo a gradual transition of power to a civilian government, free of military control. This would be an evolutionary process rather than a junta-inspired shift.
Future elections, constitutional amendments and shifts in the power structure or patronage systems could lead to the emergence of splinter groups or factions within the military; some may favour offering roles to experienced, educated civilians deemed capable of handling key areas, in particular, the economy.
"The generals may believe they can control political proxies, crony businessmen, military colleagues and ethnic factions ... but in a new context these groups might develop independent agendas," the International Crisis Group said in a report.
THE PEOPLE MAY REJECT MILITARY-CONTROLLED GOVERNMENT
Decades of economic mismanagement, human rights abuses and failure to invest sufficiently in education, health and public services have created deep public resentment of the military.
Nationwide monk-led protests in 2007 triggered by increases in fuel and cooking gas prices stoked public anger. The bloody crackdown that followed showed the junta had no qualms about using force to suppress dissent.
Myanmar's people have been promised big things after the elections. Analysts say they could revolt if a new government fails to deliver the goods.
"Attitudes have changed radically there," said Trevor Wilson, a former Australian ambassador to Myanmar, now an academic.
"The military has made plenty of mistakes before, so there's definitely potential for things to explode if they continue to handle things badly."
"DEMOCRACY" FAILS, MILITARY TAKES BACK POWER
The last time elections were held in 1990, the result was unfavourable for the generals and they refused to hand over power. If the 2010 election process throws up problems, the regime could scrap or indefinitely postpone the polls, citing reasons of national security and stability.
Even if a government and national assembly are in place, a constitutional clause allows the commander-in-chief to dissolve the house and assume power at a time of crisis. If army influence wanes, it could provoke a crisis of its own making as a pretext to wrestle back control.
"They have given themselves a way out," said Win Min, an academic and Burmese exile. "They can take back power whenever they want to."
However, most analysts say this is unlikely: provisions written into the constitution, drafted mainly by the military, will ensure there is no real threat to the status quo. (Reporting by Bangkok Newsroom; Editing by Alan Raybould)
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