SANAA, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Seven months after he reluctantly
handed over the presidency, Ali Abdullah Saleh's continuing sway
over Yemen is worrying Gulf neighbours and Western nations who
fear that the political transition could descend into chaos.
While Saleh is held responsible by many Yemenis for the more
than 2,000 deaths during last year's uprising, it was the
storming of the U.S. embassy on Sept 13 that appears to have
jolted Western countries into changing their view of a man long
seen by Washington as its best bet for containing militants.
Soldiers of two units under the control of Saleh's relatives
allowed hundreds of protesters through checkpoints around the
embassy, a Yemeni security source and Western diplomats said.
Breaking through to the inner building, they ripped plaques and
lettering from outer walls and tried to smash secure glass
doors.
President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi has promised an
investigation into the incident, which followed protest calls by
Sunni cleric Abdul-Majeed al-Zindani - designated a global
terrorist by the United States since 2004 - and the Zaydi
Islamist group Ansarallah, also known as the Houthis.
One of Saleh's sons used Facebook to deny accusations that
embassy guards had acted suspiciously. He said the Interior
Ministry should have sent in riot police.
"We share the concern over the role that the former
president and those hardcore elements around him are playing
right now," a senior Western diplomat in Sanaa said, adding they
were undermining the government and hindering the transition.
"We do have concerns about their resistance to following the
legitimate orders of President Hadi."
STABILITY IS A PRIORITY
Restoring stability in Yemen has become an international
priority for fear that Islamist militants will further entrench
themselves in a country neighbouring top oil exporter Saudi
Arabia and lying on major world shipping lanes.
The writ of central government authority has further
weakened in the chaotic unraveling of Saleh's system of rule.
The uprising lifted the lid on myriad social and economic
problems facing an impoverished country of 24 million people.
Of all the complications to reestablishing state control,
including southern secessionists, a Zaydi Shi'ite revival
movement tussling with Sunni Islamists and a covert U.S. missile
war on militants, the role of Washington's former strongman in
Sanaa has emerged as perhaps the most pressing.
Despite the immunity granted to him under the power transfer
deal, Saleh could still face the fate of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak
as activists push for ways to have him prosecuted. Mubarak was
sentenced to life imprisonment in June for complicity in the
deaths of protesters during Egypt's uprising.
Sidelined since Hadi's election in February, Saleh still
wields influence through his control of the General People's
Congress (GPC) party, a ruling coalition partner, and through
powerful relatives who run elite military and security units.
Saleh has warned in recent comments that the Arabian
Peninsula state's transition process could descend into chaos,
depicting himself as being central to Yemen's territorial unity.
Further, forces loyal to Saleh's relatives have repeatedly
mutinied against Hadi's efforts to reorganise the armed forces,
staging attacks on the Interior and Defence Ministry buildings.
But pressure on Saleh has grown in recent months.
Thousands of Yemenis have protested against the U.S.- and
Saudi-backed power transfer deal which offered Saleh his
immunity from prosecution in exchange for stepping down.
The government agreed last month to set up a commission of
inquiry into violations committed during last year's uprising,
and a transitional justice law could also be passed soon.
"People have an obligation to fulfill the terms (of the
transition) and not change them," the diplomat said. "But that
doesn't mean we have to sit by if there is evidence that Saleh
is violating the laws of Yemen now and it doesn't mean he
shouldn't be held to account for that."
EMBASSY ATTACK A WATERSHED
The embassy incident has spurred Western states shepherding
the transition into action.
Senior diplomats of ten countries, including Gulf Arab
states, European Union members, the United States and Russia,
agreed in Sanaa two weeks ago to recommend their governments
start preparing possible measures against transition "spoilers".
"They agreed there should be some effort to gather evidence
that might point the finger at those who might be considered in
violation of U.N. Security Council resolution 2051," said one
who was involved in the meeting.
The June resolution calls for a smooth transition,
accountability for "all those responsible for human rights
violations and abuses", and "security sector reform and changes
in senior appointments in the security and armed forces".
The diplomat said names were being collected among
supporters of Saleh, "extremist elements" of the Sunni Islamist
Islah party - an apparent reference to Zindani and other clerics
- and figures from the southern secessionist movement.
"I don't think there's anything imminent regarding
sanctions," a U.N. diplomatic source said in New York, but he
added: "Sooner or later it will come to that." He said Russia
and China were on board with the U.N. moves.
Analysts say Saleh, his party and others may be able to
avoid that fate if they contribute to a national dialogue
intended to map out a new political system this year.
"Can we force the GPC to accept the idea of a democratic,
civilian state in the dialogue and that rivalry should be
regulated through the ballot box? We need the GPC to accept
this," said political scientist Mohammed al-Mutawakkel.
STILL IN YEMEN
The fourth Arab leader to be unseated in "Arab Spring"
protests, Saleh spent several weeks in the United States for
medical treatment just before he left office. The U.S.
ambassador in Sanaa said two weeks ago it would not be possible
to grant him a visa for now, but gave no more details.
Once abroad, Saleh would be open to petitions under
international law or domestic laws of any country he stayed in.
He recently said he had no intention of leaving Yemen.
"Revenge dominates in Yemeni society. If people feel wronged
and no one gives them justice they will try to get it themselves
in any way," said Human Rights Minister Hooria Mashhour.
At least 129 activists disappeared during the uprising and
hundreds of "enforced disappearances" throughout Saleh's rule
still remain unaccounted for, provoking a campaign of portraits
on public walls by activists seeking redress.
The capital still bears signs of last year's confrontation,
with pock-marked and destroyed buildings such as Yemenia Airways
offices in Hasaba. The fear remains that street fighting between
former allies under Saleh's rule will return, or that
Houthi-Islah confrontations could spread.
Political analyst Abdulghani al-Iryani said there was little
chance of the old order reestablishing itself, though Saleh and
the north Yemeni tribal and religious elites would try to resist
the shift to decentralisation.
"It's impossible. If you look at the historical patterns,
his regime survived for so long against the law of gravity,"
Iryani said.
(Additional reporting by Louis Charbonneau in New York, Editing
by Sami Aboudi and Samia Nakhoul/Janet McBride)
