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Are the days of the traditional gaming console numbered? Experts divided over future of next generation hardware

'I find it hard to believe that Xbox and PlayStation will be with us in the same form in 10 years time'

Are the days of the traditional gaming console numbered? That's the tricky question right now worrying a once mighty industry.

In the six years since the world last saw any living room gaming hardware launched, the iPhone, iPad and Android have all arrived to usher in a cheaper, quicker and easier way to play games.

But while the next generation trio - the PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii - went on to sell a total of more than 200m devices around the globe, experts are divided as to whether such giant success can be repeated with a new round of console hardware.



Gaming legend Will Wright, creator of The Sims, recently said in an interview that things are changing so much in the industry, especially with free-to-play titles, that "all the console guys are running scared".

Many point to a new generation of youngsters growing up addicted to the app model with console hardware costing the same price as a portable and multi-use tablet computer.

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Developer Will Luton, of Mobile Pie, believes under-the-TV console-based gameplay will become less relevant. He said: "What mobile devices and the Web have done is snuck games in the hands of millions of people who wouldn't consider themselves as gamers. It has been a revolution.

"The other half of the story is digital distribution, allowing for cheaper games over the internet rather than as discs in a box. Traditional games companies - particularly retailers, publishers and platform holders - want to maintain that high price for various reasons. Which is crippling them."

He added: "What will happen at some point in the next 10 years is a device will make it on to the living room TV, maybe as a connected mobile device, a media player or in a new TV itself, and will be game capable, the same way mobile phones and web-capable computers are.

"They'll deliver digitally and won't be beholden to the traditional industry, so allow for true digital pricing. We will see new game genres emerge as the TV is perfect for long-form narrative gameplay.

"I find it hard to believe that Xbox and PlayStation will be with us in the same form in 10 years time. The days of a plastic boxes, fed with discs, are definitely numbered and I think we're starting to see the decline."



One of those new style devices could be the $99 Ouya. It grabbed headlines recently after the self-proclaimed "new kind of video game console" launched a bid to raise finance through crowd-funding website Kickstarter. Here members of the public can back projects with their own money.

Ouya's creators, who admit they love console games on big HD TVs, asked for $950,000 but, at the time of writing, now have 41,000 backers and more than $5m.

Their living room box works on the Android mobile operating system and is said to give developers the chance to create new gaming experiences for the home on a big television but without many of the associated costs and issues that previously made them so expensive.

Seasoned games journalist Johnny Minkley said: "While there's still question marks over the credibility and viability of Ouya, the clear appeal of its concept and remarkable fundraising success suggest at the very least there's a big appetite for a different way to experience video games in the living room.

"Angry Birds is the poster child for a new era of mobile, low-cost, casual gaming, downloaded over a billion times - and owing none of its success to consoles."

But he added: "The hardcore audience and hardcore games aren't going away - Call of Duty, after all, is more popular now than it's ever been. But with so many different - and cheaper - ways to play, whenever PlayStation 4 and the next Xbox arrive, Sony and Microsoft will have a tough job in explaining to consumers why they should invest in yet another expensive box."

Console sales numbers are certainly in decline, partly due to the lack of new hardware but crucially game sales are down, too. In 2007, 71.4m computer games were sold in Britain, a figure which includes both console and PC, but by last year this had shrunk to 55.4 million.

Nintendo however appear not to be deterred. Later this year the legendary Japanese company will launch the Wii U, the successor to its game-changing Wii motion-sensing console which has an extra screen in its controller.

Microsoft and Sony are yet to make their next move though, instead turning their machines into multi-media hubs for the living room thanks to on-demand content, streaming and social media.

The changing times in gaming have now led to British interactive entertainment body, the UKIE, opening its doors to more varied and smaller developers and associated companies.
 
With the number of traditional big names decreasing, these firms are now making big profits from the surge in popularity of app-based, social and online games. Money comes through a range of means from in-game purchases, micropayments and subscriptions or paid-for downloads to buy the title initially.
 
UKIE CEO Dr Jo Twist told Yahoo! News UK she believes the shift in games offerings will ultimately create a stronger and more viable industry for the future.
 
She explained: "Our industry is diversifying as more people pick up gaming as part of their every day lives. Devices like iOS or Android tablets and phones make games more accessible and have grown demand while the supply has changed because the barriers to entry are lower.
 
"We've always had mobile games but WAP ones were rubbish so it is brilliant our devices are now so powerful and pervasive that we can have this type of snack gaming experience in our pocket.
 
"Social games and Facebook games have to retain their customers on a daily basis so their production values are also going up."
 
Dr Twist added: "We are most definitely seeing the industry in transition and the bigger publishers are looking at different models that aren't just about the upfront £40 payment, with episodic content and connected experiences.
 
"The average in-app purchase is now $14 so those who have been in a more traditional retail market are now having to look at how they can evolve with the way people want to pay and play games.
 
"It isn't an either/or. People still like to go to the cinema for the blockbuster and watch films at home. Different people will always want different experiences for different reasons at different times."

But Michael French, editor-in-chief of games industry magazines MCV and Develop, believes that while Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft have been "embarrassingly lethargic", consoles are here to stay.

He said: "I think the death of the console is over-exaggerated. There is still a market for rich, complete games – whether Modern Warfare 3 last year or LEGO Batman 2 right now. That's not going to vanish overnight."