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UK vs Iran: What next?

Mon Jul 06 11:39AM

Iran and Britain are engaged in a grim, bitter game of diplomatic who-blinks-first.

By Alex Stevenson

The powers-that-be in Iran are steadily cranking up tensions as they seek to establish an external enemy.

First came public comments by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, that the British government was deliberately acting to foment unrest in the wake of last month's disputed election. Then we had the tit-for-tat expulsions of embassy staff, a standard practice with a common currency in international relations. It's the diplomatic equivalent of stamping your feet - Britain used it against Russia following Moscow's refusal to extradite Alexander Litvinenko.

There was a big raising of the stakes with the news that nine British embassy staff had been arrested. Officials in government did not know where they were being held. All but two were subsequently detained, but last Friday we learned from the Guardian Council these may face trial for their claims.

Britain had a quick response: behind the scenes, diplomats have been working to secure agreement across the EU at united action. Anyone who knows the EU - witness their disjointed response to Russia's military intervention into Georgia last year - will be aware of how elusive such unity can be. But Britain somehow persuaded the entire EU to summon their Iranian ambassadors.

This is a major victory. But for Britain it is only a battle in a much larger (diplomatic) war. Foreign Office officials are privately determined to stand up to Iran, despite realising Tehran has little motivation to budge. They are aware the harder Britain's response becomes the easier it will be for Iran's hardliners to paint the picture of an external aggressor, prepared to meddle in Iran's internal affairs.

But they also know Britain's credibility remains at risk. No country can reasonably be expected to stomach the insults endured in recent months without acting.
So we have the prospect of several months of slowly raising tensions, with matters forced quicker to confrontation in the event of Iranian intransigence over the captive diplomats. A slow escalation is the reasoned, if somewhat remorseless, response.

From summoning ambassadors the next steps are visa bans; the withdrawal of ambassadors; and then, inevitably, sanctions at the UN. Blink and you won't miss what is bound to a long, drawn-out struggle.

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What do you expect with an inexperienced lightweight as foreign secretary. Milliband is no diplomat, and a very weak foreign secretary. He tries to talk tough but just looks ridiculous. At times like this you need someone with some gravitas - like the late lamented Robin Cook, or Frank Field. I think we should distance ourselves from making any comment on the situation in Iran - basically it's nothing to do with us. We should leave well alone and let them sort themselves out. If they end up with a theolocratic dictatorship - so be it, it's nothing to do with us - or the USA for that matter. We've interfered too much in the Middle East in the past, and all it's got us is grief!

From bill.phipps on Mon Jul 06 11:53AM
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Iran has always had a gripe with certian countries in order to shift the blame, divert from the real problems that go on inside its own country. I suppose it will be shifting its attention to isreal pretty soon once they start processing more nuclear fuel. Why on earth do we have anything to do with such diabolical regimes in the first place? The people of Iran should deal with there own problems and stop looking for an international escape goat!

From pleasesendmeyourinfo on Mon Jul 06 12:01PM
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Well said bill.phipps - but your comments about David Miliband would apply to ANY of the morons that we have in the present 'government' (I use the word advisedly !) or in the Tory party - they are all a bunch of useless shysters, who should be prosecuted and jailed for the utter mis-management of this country !

From mykonik5 on Mon Jul 06 12:01PM
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Yeah, I second bill phipps statement!

From pleasesendmeyourinfo on Mon Jul 06 12:02PM
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Just how many more lives are to be lost in this futile battle BRING OUR PEOPLE HOME!!!

From b172fab on Mon Jul 06 12:15PM
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Any nation founded on religeon is a primitive one. Primitives always take an aggresive stance toward criticism, thinking they know best and no-one has the right to question them is what they do. If, like most religeous people, they will not hear criticism then they are not worthy of addressing.

From arbiter3985 on Mon Jul 06 12:20PM
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"No country can reasonably be expected to stomach the insults endured in recent months without acting."
::
Why? To prove we have bigger balls than they do? Revenge and retaliation? Posturing? Pride? Or is our National Security under threat? Because if not, then it's bollox. Unnescessary and possibly dangerous bollox.
::
We wonder for whose benefit this kind of thing is for...

From chris_bean on Mon Jul 06 12:22PM
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Lets get our own country in order before we go looking for trouble in other countries, we are getting as bad as th USA Leave iran alone and let them sort ther own problems out, We have problems her due to this incompetent goverment and PM

From larnaca22 on Mon Jul 06 12:23PM
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bill.phipps - Somehow, - I find myself agreeing with you!

From garenacreman on Mon Jul 06 12:23PM
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Invade them, deport the fanatics and let the ordinary people live as they want.

From jamesehibbert on Mon Jul 06 12:24PM
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