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UK vs Iran: What next?

Mon Jul 06 11:39AM
Iran and Britain are engaged in a grim, bitter game of diplomatic who-blinks-first.

By Alex Stevenson

The powers-that-be in Iran are steadily cranking up tensions as they seek to establish an external enemy.

First came public comments by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, that the British government was deliberately acting to foment unrest in the wake of last month's disputed election. Then we had the tit-for-tat expulsions of embassy staff, a standard practice with a common currency in international relations. It's the diplomatic equivalent of stamping your feet - Britain used it against Russia following Moscow's refusal to extradite Alexander Litvinenko.

There was a big raising of the stakes with the news that nine British embassy staff had been arrested. Officials in government did not know where they were being held. All but two were subsequently detained, but last Friday we learned from the Guardian Council these may face trial for their claims.

Britain had a quick response: behind the scenes, diplomats have been working to secure agreement across the EU at united action. Anyone who knows the EU - witness their disjointed response to Russia's military intervention into Georgia last year - will be aware of how elusive such unity can be. But Britain somehow persuaded the entire EU to summon their Iranian ambassadors.

This is a major victory. But for Britain it is only a battle in a much larger (diplomatic) war. Foreign Office officials are privately determined to stand up to Iran, despite realising Tehran has little motivation to budge. They are aware the harder Britain's response becomes the easier it will be for Iran's hardliners to paint the picture of an external aggressor, prepared to meddle in Iran's internal affairs.

But they also know Britain's credibility remains at risk. No country can reasonably be expected to stomach the insults endured in recent months without acting.
So we have the prospect of several months of slowly raising tensions, with matters forced quicker to confrontation in the event of Iranian intransigence over the captive diplomats. A slow escalation is the reasoned, if somewhat remorseless, response.

From summoning ambassadors the next steps are visa bans; the withdrawal of ambassadors; and then, inevitably, sanctions at the UN. Blink and you won't miss what is bound to a long, drawn-out struggle.

Comments11 - 20 of 214

  1. Iran is where Britain was 100 years or so ago, ruled by religious and self righteous people. They just need time to step out of their medieval present. This will happen given time, when the old guard die of natural causes and the younger generation, pushed on by their womenfolk sick of being treated like second class citizens burst free from their fear of oppression. Iran is not going to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century overnight. Leave them alone, they'll get where the majority of their people want to be eventually.

    stevepurslow From stevepurslow on Mon Jul 06 12:25PM

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  2. To add to my previous comment, it seems to be a standard policy of smug religeous leaders to lash out first with low personal jibes like the comment from their supreame leader about Britain being the route of all evil or something. The U.S. and UK attemp to extend a hand of peace and this is the return that is given. I'm not sure what can be said about that?

    arbiter3985 From arbiter3985 on Mon Jul 06 12:28PM

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  3. children children,

    if we just ignore them they'll get bored and go away. admittedly with a thief at the helm, but it won't be the first or last time we will allow that and it isn't for us to meddle with. we have to learn to pick our fights better, we're getting very bloodied out there.

    dappenzeromb From dappenzeromb on Mon Jul 06 12:32PM

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  4. The Iranian government was a dictatorship under the Shah and then the Ayatollah who passed away, now it is an oligarchy.

    The ruling elite are medieval Islamists bent on war. They have been funding insurgents in Iraq, Pakistan, Afganistan, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Eygpt, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza.
    The message is simple, Islam or death, wear a Hijab, or death. There tactics are those of the Mafia, and the Dictators of the past like Saddam Hussain, Hitler and Stalin, and the N. Vietnamise. To terrorise all opposition with absolute clarity, oppose us and you will die.
    What is there to discuss? Why aren't the Western governments leveling with us? We don't want to die of radiation poising or nuclear bombs. Their first duty is our protection, and they are failing. This weakness is emboldening dictators worldwide in Burma, Hugo Chavex in Venezuela, Zelaya in Honduras, the cruel Oligarchy in North Korea and to some extent China, who don't believe in democracy.

    richardgeorgekightley From richardgeorgekightley on Mon Jul 06 12:33PM

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  5. Britain didnt persade the EU-It was sweeden the czechs the french and the germans were all calling for a join approach against iran. After all it was bashing all of europe not just britain. The rest of europe then declared solidarity with britain in demanding that the british embassy staff should be released. British goverments have unfortenetly for europe never reallyy tried to lead europe through- change things yes, stop actions from being taken yes, but lead europe - no. It has never lead the drive for reform in the EU,has never lead europe in common responses, even though it has one of the biggest voting powers in the EU,- maybe Britains content to leave france and germany do the leading? Maybe the british goverments just couldnt be bothered? Or maybe they prefer getting the help of the US? Or then again maybe its not the british goverments fault- Most countries dont like to leave the important things in britain because there is so much antiEUism its actually unstable. I think Britain could do a good job if it lead a common EU approach to some thing or if it tried to bring in reforms- but it has never really tried. And as for the EUs response to Russias invasion of Georgia- not a single member state has recognised the break away regions of georgia and besides Italys disagreement and some worry on the part of ex soviet members, the EU president did a fantastic job in Russia. The US stood silently fuming about to nuke at any moment while the EU president flew in and watched over the leaders of both sides as they reluclantly singed the treaty. The disunity wasnt as bad as you make out at all. In fact it was fairly good unity. Russia definetly didnt seem to notice any disssunity any way.

    seamusallenz From seamusallenz on Mon Jul 06 12:37PM

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  6. Britain didnt persade the EU-It was sweeden the czechs the french and the germans were all calling for a join approach against iran. After all it was bashing all of europe not just britain. The rest of europe then declared solidarity with britain in demanding that the british embassy staff should be released. British goverments have unfortenetly for europe never reallyy tried to lead europe through- change things yes, stop actions from being taken yes, but lead europe - no. It has never lead the drive for reform in the EU,has never lead europe in common responses, even though it has one of the biggest voting powers in the EU,- maybe Britains content to leave france and germany do the leading? Maybe the british goverments just couldnt be bothered? Or maybe they prefer getting the help of the US? Or then again maybe its not the british goverments fault- Most countries dont like to leave the important things in britain because there is so much antiEUism its actually unstable. I think Britain could do a good job if it lead a common EU approach to some thing or if it tried to bring in reforms- but it has never really tried. And as for the EUs response to Russias invasion of Georgia- not a single member state has recognised the break away regions of georgia and besides Italys disagreement and some worry on the part of ex soviet members, the EU president did a fantastic job in Russia. The US stood silently fuming about to nuke at any moment while the EU president flew in and watched over the leaders of both sides as they reluclantly singed the treaty. The disunity wasnt as bad as you make out at all. In fact it was fairly good unity. Russia definetly didnt seem to notice any disssunity any way.

    seamusallenz From seamusallenz on Mon Jul 06 12:37PM

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  7. Alot of Iranians are incredibly well educated and do not support the religious nuts that rule the country, unfortuntely when someone is pointing a gun at you and telling you to do something it is far easier to say 'ok i will do it' so whether as a country we let this go on or support the people who genuinely want a democratic society, so unfortunately we have in the past set the standards for ourselves so will be obliged to help if asked, so no we cannot leave them 'alone' not while they are frankly alot of them are religious nuts, and lets face it cutting all ties with Iran when they are the largest oil exporter will be interesting to watch, as much as i dislike religious nutters who are frankly beyond help they do actually have something we want, role on a self sufficiency

    ctimander From ctimander on Mon Jul 06 12:40PM

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  8. Why do we need any 'relationship' with Iran at all.
    Nukes are easily available to them(instructions on the web) and they have immense wealth so producing them would not be a problem ,if they haven't already so we might as well sit back and let the Israeli's do whatever they feel like doing knowing it won't be some heinious hidious torture like waving a pork chop at them that will have us (the western nations)condemend as evil wicked infidels.

    parsec1 From parsec1 on Mon Jul 06 12:48PM

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  9. Iran needs to shut its mouth and grow up, and we could maybe be more supportive, although we should always defend the innocents first, our media have made a blunder here, I was reading it all and compared to the riots in China recently, the reportive nature of the articles was bias against Iran but with China it is a lot more respective of that Nation. (Maybe lesson learned, but it seems more aggressive against Iran)

    From the day our people settled on these lands others have always tried to dominate this tiny Island, they think we dont pack a punch because of our small size, If they think they can scare us after all the horribles that have happened on this island LOL they better re-think their pointing finger tactics at the smallest concerned country, because we will bite back with a ball crunching bite if they even attempt to hurt our people. Bring it on, but without doubt just shut up and be normal !!

    rms.damien From rms.damien on Mon Jul 06 12:49PM

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  10. Have to say, this is probably the best comment I have seen ..

    Any nation founded on religeon is a primitive one. Primitives always take an aggresive stance toward criticism, thinking they know best and no-one has the right to question them is what they do. If, like most religeous people, they will not hear criticism then they are not worthy of addressing.

    rms.damien From rms.damien on Mon Jul 06 12:54PM

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