A stronger, more assertive Russia is generally viewed with horror by European diplomats. They need not be so aghast.
By Alex Stevenson
The fear of a resurgent Russia is at the forefront of the Commons' defence committee's report on London's relations with Moscow today. 'Russia: A New Confrontation?' is set against the context of "some commentators" suggesting "there is a risk of a new cold war emerging as a result of Russia's increasingly assertive foreign policy".
Those pundits have a point or two. Just look at the last year, which shows Moscow's enthusiastic embracing of both actions and words as foreign policy tools. Earlier this year saw brinkmanship from Moscow over its energy policy, as it cut supplies across much of Europe because of a dispute with Ukraine. And last August witnessed the outrageous military intervention into South Ossetia.
Georgia acted recklessly, it is accepted. But Russia's actions showed the limits of its respect to state sovereignty - and its preparedness to fly in the face of the international community.
Then there's the willingness to use the diplomatic tools at Russia's disposal. That was summed up, last October, by Vladimir Putin's refusal to attend talks with German chancellor Angela Merkel. It followed Russia's veto, earlier in 2008, against proposals to impose sanctions on Robert Mugabe's regime in Zimbabwe at the UN security council. That was a clear example where Russian interests, clearly not directly affected, did not play a part. Diplomats were shocked as a result.
We only have to go back to Moscow's refusal to extradite the man named as chief suspect in the Alexander Litvinenko murder case, Andrei Lugovoi, as an example of that stubbornness affecting Britain's interests. It's Russian diplomats' notorious and consistent refusal to play ball, when combined with their happy enthusiasm to take action on the ground when it matters, which sets Foreign Office officials on edge like fingernails on a blackboard.
Commentators can be forgiven for fearing a new cold war in this context. But they should not be alarmed.
MPs, assessing the situation in today's report, conclude that a gritted-teeth approach is just what the doctor ordered. They urge London to forget "abstract and misleading notions of shared values" and instead concentrate on the harsh "realities" of Russia's actions.
"However desirable cooperation with Russia may be, it should not come at the price of accepting the legitimacy of a Russian sphere of influence," it concludes.
The tone of the report is underpinned by fear. It wants to avoid Russia returning as a powerful, tantrum-prone, dangerous actor on the world stage.
As it happens, this is the right line for the Foreign Office to take. But not because of a dread about Russia resuming its old aggressive, assertive prominence. Russia's return to confidence should be welcomed.
It is in Britain's interest to have Russia strong. Not because we want it strong-arming its way around the former Soviet bloc nations, but because it gives us something real and meaningful to deal with.
Consider the situation after the break-up of the Soviet Union. Then the weakened new nation was full of power vacuums across its sectors, quickly filled by competing factions. Oligarchs emerged to build their own small empires. The Kremlin, after decades of supremacy, was weak. And British diplomats hated it. There was no point making complex agreements with this mess of a country because the odds of them actually becoming reality were slim.
The Kremlin's return to supremacy, carefully crafted by Putin and only coming to fruition since around 2005, has changed all that. It is the reason the now-prime minister remains so popular. Dmitry Medvedev, his replacement as president, has grown in stature and become the powerful figure Russians like in charge.
It is also the reason Foreign Office diplomats are secretly pleased by Russia's re-emergence. Moscow's natural position has always been a thorn in the side of the world order. But at least the outcomes hashed out by our diplomats on the ground there now have a better shot of being long-lasting and enduring.
There is still room for caution and reserve, of course. There is much about Russia's ambitions which act directly against London's interests. At least now, though, the Foreign Office's chances of communicating effectively with Moscow are maximised. The new, stronger Russia is not all bad for Britain.
Editor's Corner
Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! All rights reserved.
Notice: We collect personal information on this site. To learn more about how we use your information, see our: Updated Privacy Policy
The days of the cold war are over, its now time to see what sort of nation they have grown into and maybe credit them with a bit more about them, they have come a long way as a nation and will need more time possibly before they can put some of their old ways to bed, but good luck to them we need to take a step back from inteferin as a nation, i think sometimes we forget we really dont hold an empire any more
Report abuse
America and to a lesser extent Europe always feel threatened by any country that they arent pushing around and explointing economically.
Report abuse
We need a british Putin to lead us for once instead of a wet shower
Report abuse
It will be interesting to see what happens in the Artic " Resources " dispute where Russia are claiming Canadian and other countries' territory.
Report abuse
winksc79: Russia is currently arming Iran. Who's pushing who around, I wonder.......
Report abuse
Ok I agree with much of the comments and Georgia must have been out of its skull to have provoked its massive touchy neighbour to the extent that it did,then expect support from the west over S Ossetia, but remember historically Russia has always liked buffer states between itself and Nato countries ,surely the pragmatic policy of accepting the status quo,maintaining cordial relations with Russia and its surrounding states would be a better policy in the long term than provoking the touchy old bear by encouraging its previous satellite states to join Nato .Max Taylor
Report abuse
Russia has never got it right, well perhaps for about 6 months under the Tzar.
Its economy and population is slowly imploding. The agression it is showing is alarming, even if it is primaraly a gesture because this gesture is that of a nuclear armed country and Do you want a dangerous unstable neighbour with a gun?
Report abuse
I believe they will be better than the USA, too much provocation, twisted and propaganda created from American's foriegn affair... The Illuminati is EVIL... Dictatoring, misleading, Money, global slavering/sheeps, freedom without really freeing... Look it up people (Illuminati/FreeMasons).
Report abuse
I think that doing business in Russia is fraught with problems. You go there and are a success and the State manipulates things so that you sell out and go home. You invest a lot and it does not work out you go home. Either way you nurse big losses as per B.P. etc., etc.,
Report abuse
Yukos and BP-TNK? If not oil, how about Ikea's response? A nation reliant on nationalism as an identity is where Russia went wrong the first time, and it will do so again at it's current marching rate. Nationalism has been Russia's cover for widespread corruption and ineffective policy, because you can still be nationalist whilst operating dubiously and illegally.
A dire rule of law failing to represent the people, siding nearly exclusively in commercial disputes with state-owned companies, is repugnant. Did you miss the disproportionate bailiff seizure and sale of Telenors 30% stake in VimpelCom?
A cohesive Russia proud of its position as a favoured trading partner is good for the west, but a Russia that only sees the west as a provider of services, not stable democracies adhering to an established rule of law that it can aspire to, is a fickle partner.
If all Russia trades effectively is oil, it will continue to be affected as a discrete entity - it's inputs will immediately affect it's outputs. And when the market for those inputs falls... We want a Russia that is operates in a continuous state - constantly refining a working formula, not reviving a fallen ideology.
Report abuse