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The Lisbon treaty and hypothetical questions

Wed Oct 28 09:54AM

The impending Lisbon treaty has triggered a rash of quibbling from our leading politicians far exceeding their usual reluctance to look ahead.

By Alex Stevenson

It's a long-standing, tried-and-tested rule: don't ever answer hypothetical questions. Doing so brings into play a minefield of potential pitfalls. Misguided comments can be quoted back at you with embarrassing consequences. Demonstrating commitment to a particular point of view is anathema to veterans of Westminster as a result.

Running into this brick wall again and again is part and parcel of being a political journalist, but it doesn't stop us trying. Lobby hacks are more than justified in pressing the question of what the parties will do if the Lisbon treaty is ratified. Only the signature of the Czech president, Vaclav Klaus, is required to turn it from being a theoretical proposal to an impending reality. You might think it would be incumbent on politicians to explain what they would do in this scenario. Yet the lack of Czech commitment is more than enough fuel to brush aside such questions as mere "speculation".

David Cameron has the biggest headache on his hands, and this morning appeared the most adept at dodging the issue. His party has been seeking a referendum since the Lisbon treaty was created. What policy will he adopt if the treaty becomes law? Will he threaten a retrospective poll - or concede and move on?

Following the first law of hypotheticals, Cameron dodged like a pro. "It if becomes clear this treaty is going to be ratified... then we'd have to set out what we're going to do about that," he fudged. At one stage his heroic avoidance was literally nonsense. "If that circumstance comes to pass, a new set of circumstances will exist." This was far from illuminating.

It came as a relief for the Tory leader he was able to distract the pack away from the fundamental issue of his party's impending dilemma with the vision of an "all-singing" El Presidente Blair. "You were the future once," he once famously taunted Blair across the dispatch box. Blair may be the future once again, but Cameron wasn't interested in taking on the prospect just yet. "Maybe that time is coming closer," was the nearest he got to admitting the Lisbon treaty's ratification was imminent. "We will see."

The Blair presidency has caused much more of a problem in No 10, following a report in the Guardian that Gordon Brown has asked two senior civil servants to begin quietly lobbying Blair's case behind closed doors in Brussels.

Initially Downing Street jumped to dismiss the reports as - what else - "speculation". The morning lobby briefing, held shortly before Cameron stood up, gave the prime minister's spokesman the opportunity to outline why this was absurd. He was able to draw on not one but two hypotheticals.

"There wouldn't be any sense in the prime minister [asking civil servants to start lobbying] given that a) we haven't got the treaty ratified and b) Tony Blair hasn't decided whether he will be a candidate," he said.

Blair's reticence is something of an irritation for Brown, who is doing his predecessor rather a favour in being so forthcoming. Yet the elusive Blair is only playing his cards as he should do. He doesn't need to make any kind of announcement until the treaty is ratified. Doing so beforehand would be a foolish mistake you wouldn't expect from a veteran of the ex-PM's calibre.

It also explains the steadfast denials of foreign secretary David Miliband, who brushed aside suggestions he could be in line for the high representative role also due to be created under the newly-reformed EU.

"I am not a candidate for that. I am not available," he said firmly on Sunday.

The foreign secretary will not have had to think hard before making such a forceful rejection. The treaty has yet to be ratified. Blair's bid has yet to be defeated (his prospects would be zero if Blair got the top job). And he already has a job to which he must be 100 per cent committed. That's a few question-marks too far.

If Cameron couldn't cope with the hypothetical of what to do in the event of the Lisbon treaty being ratified, the question from one parliamentary sketchwriter completely stumped him. What did he think Blair, relatively young for a former prime minister, should spend his days doing? Surely he must have considered this - given he would probably end up a youngish ex-PM himself?

Cameron gasped, spluttered and stumbled his way through the answer. "I've got so many things to worry about," he began desperately, before blurting out, "I thought he was sorting out the Middle East?" An awkward pause followed, before the man expected to be next in line for the nuclear codes admitted he was completely stumped.

Politicians resist hypotheticals because of the peril they present. Dealing with their answers is more frustrating for the hacks than it is for them, so it's good to know that - at least sometimes - the tables are turned.

Comments1 - 10 of 364

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every political party has said they will give the united kingdom a referrendum on the lisbon treaty. then do it and stop all the messing about once and for all. i myself would vote no as i do not wish to become a federal republic of europe. europe will go the same way in time as russia, one big set up and then split up into all the various countries, it did not work to many differences.
now we come to wales, it has an assembly that works, yet we have people saying we must vote on giving it more powers. forget the vote ,the assembly is up and running just transfer the powers
the problem is the MPs see there there power going and there jobs and of course there money.
we waste too much time talking but no do.
bob aberystwyth

From nmail on Wed Oct 28 10:36AM
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The people were promised a vote and didn't get one due to corruption and "certain people" being promised high paid positions in exchange for betraying a clear manifesto pledge. That alone justifies holding a referendum and tearing it up if its refused.
President Blair my arse, more like Chairman Blair! How ironic the man who lied about the referendum benefits with a multimillion pound job as a result.

From jamieellis1966 on Wed Oct 28 10:40AM
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If Cameron doesn't answer the question of "when you are in power will you give us a vote on the EU" then he won't get into power because most Tories want the referendum. Why can non of the three main parties simply let the public choose? What is so wrong with giving the people of a country the right to have a say? (That last comment is tongue in cheek!)
Then again look at Ireland. They chose NO and were told to try again because that wasn't the right answer. If they had chosen YES would they have been given another vote just to be sure? Will they do best two out of three this time. No, What is it about politicians and Europe. It must be personal gain!

From andyfear on Wed Oct 28 10:47AM
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The Lisbon Treaty basically dissolves our sovereign nation and we become a European municipality, devoid of any further control, to continue with this means the beginning of the end. Horrific!

From garenacreman on Wed Oct 28 10:49AM
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Rather an hypothetical article Mr. Stevenson? A bit of a 2 minute lightweight distraction from the serious situation we find ourselves in. So what can we glean? That politicians resist answering hypothetical questions? It seems to me they resist answering real one's as well. Dissembling, rhetoric, misdirection, and even downright lies seem to be their stock in trade.
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Consider how you (journalists) also contribute by asking hypothetical questions, to which (surprise surprise) you get reserved responses (if any). There's nothing wrong with asking hypothetical questions. In fact, asking such questions as 'what would you do if' are perfectly valid, as we should know what our political masters and masters to be, think and intend on matters of substance, but it (seems to) end up in a bit of a game, in which the media is also culpable. Why?, because too much journalism results in opinion. This can vary from 'intelligent' considerations right through to inane drivel. Seems to me that politicians and the media have worked their way into hypothetical space, at the expense of knowledge, fact, and reason.
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Reforming the EU and our own political system is hugely important. This is not something that is going to happen from within, so it must come from outside pressure. The media can contribute to this effort, or they can hinder it, which it seems to be what they are doing, and have been doing in no small measure. It's not very surprising given the 'ownership' of these very powerful enterprises, who 'control' what is published. In that respect, the Internet is possibly the only vehicle where facts and fictions are available openly. The biggest problem with that is the 'intelligence' of those who use the Internet (well, you have to be able to discern between the gems and the germs). When it comes to the mindset of the 'masses', it is unfortunately not yet something that seems to impact very positively yet, but thank goodness it is there...

From chris_bean on Wed Oct 28 10:53AM
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a referendum? what like the irish one? keep voting till we get a yes? will the rules be changed here too? ballot boxes being delivered 48 hours in advance? hmm?

From tracyandhercamera on Wed Oct 28 10:55AM
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The EU is the result of glaobalisation, european countries (inc GB) have no power to compete with the super power of the USA nor the growing power of China, who are growing their international power at the expense of their peoples rights and liberties. No individual country of Europe can compete on those terms, so what do you prefer, under the thumb of the USA or worse China, or a federal European state, which you have at least a minor say in, though it is accepted not a big enough say in?

From darren.martin@ymail.com on Wed Oct 28 10:59AM
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There is only one way to stop the Lisbon Treaty becoming law and that is to force a General Election with the utmost speed - either by a vote of "No Confidence" in the deplorable government that we now have - or by military intervention with the Monarch assuming temporary control of the nation whilst ballot papers are printed. As non of the two main opposition parties have the backbone to force a General Election then it may have to be military intervention and the Monarch that save this nation. Yes people - it is that serious!
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We cannot afford to wait until the next scheduled General Election - the Lisbon treaty will be law by that time. That is why the odious - and unelected - Mandleson has been placed to prop up an ever weakening PM and lack lustre government. The plan to place B.Liar as the first president of the new EU State is well under way. The "Project" will then be complete. The United Kingdom will cease to exist as a nation. All of your legislation will be forced upon you by Brussels and an unelected "Commissariat" and the likelyhood is that Westminster will cease to exist as well. Fairwell democracy!
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Is it any wonder that the BNP are gaining support when our politicians treat us as imbeciles? Wake up Westminster before Enoch Powell's vision becomes reality!

From celliwic.c.s on Wed Oct 28 11:00AM
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I hold no brief for Blair being rejected by the Tory party for the President of the EU.But if David Cameron was Prime Minister would he support Michael Heseltine or John Major if they decided they wanted to go for the Presidency of the EU. David Cameron lacks in political integrity.Will he follow through with a referendom on a treaty few even understand. Tell us about the treaty Mr cameron. How will it affect a market trader in Dagenham or a Computer Porogrammer in the city of London or a gardener in camden town. Whats it all about mate?Will you nominate your own candidate for the president of the EU? Why not if you feel so strongly about it and you dislike Blair so much,what about Norman Tebbit or Denis Skinner?

From stevenbaker1951 on Wed Oct 28 11:04AM
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But you have two BNP grunts in Europe garenacreman.
Would you deprive the EU of your holocaust-denying, racist, unfunny comedian Giggling Griffin and his equally impotent BNP sidekick?
Griffin said he wouldn't rest until every non-white was out of Britain.
Would you deprive him of his Big Chance?

From jock.ferguson on Wed Oct 28 11:06AM
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