What an EU referendum would mean for Ukip

The EU, as an organisation, is difficult to get your head around. It has a four Presidencies; the Council, the Commission, the Council of the European Union and the Parliament.

So it’s not easy to identify who is responsible for what.

Additionally, the fact that these Presidencies often appear to be appointed by Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) isolates them, and increases the image of a remote, bureaucratic plutocracy. Little wonder then, that this is often the battle cry of the UK Independence Party (Ukip) and the issue that their leader, Nigel Farage, uses to mobilise voters and amplify his call for a referendum.

But if David Cameron decides to call said referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, this will be the death knell of Ukip, whatever the result, and here are the reasons why.

As a single-issue party, Ukip would have no electoral legitimacy in the event of the UK exiting the European Union. I’m sure outwardly the 11 Ukip MEPs would display satisfaction at the result, but they may be less joyous once they received their P45s. Ukip as a political entity would be dead in the water because presently a vote for Ukip is a protest vote.

Alternatively, if they lose the referendum and the UK remains, then this is similarly terminal. As the British public will have displayed a majority of support for membership, Ukip’s arguments would need to adapt. For the main three parties, the loss of one policy debate (on, say welfare) is an opportunity to focus on another (like the military). Ukip’s other policies are widely unknown to the British public, who see them simply as a more Right-wing alternative to the Tories. For the record, Farage is trying to diversify his party’s image.

However, there is a far more important issue that would be played out should David Cameron suddenly grow a backbone on this issue.

And that is of the politics themselves. Pro-Europeans nearly always cite money as the main motivation behind remaining within the EU. It is a simple argument that works, but it must also be remembered that our needs are different than say newer members.

Were a referendum called, it would force the other issues, such as fiscal union, agriculture subsidies, trade agreements, international travel and immigration into the light, and would in turn force the public to pore over the details. Of the ones I’ve listed, Ukip's strongest argument has already been won (the Euro), I have reservations as to whether they can win any of the others. 

Regardless of Ukip, I'm a strong advocate of a referendum.

It would force voters to read up on this issue and get them more involved in the European project. Being obstreperous with the EU counts as one of the UK's favourite pastimes, and I'm all for it, as long as we know why we're doing it.