Getting inside voters' minds is not always a straightforward business, as Ben Page knows all too well.
Ipsos Mori's chief executive understands that what the public want can often be very complicated indeed. Part of the problem is what Page has termed 'cognitive polyphasia' - the ability of the general public to want more than one thing. Border controls should be toughened up, they think, but those lengthy queues at borders are completely unacceptable. Global warming has to be tackled, it's agreed, but measures to enforce recycling are simply unacceptable.
Then there's the basic mechanics of coming up with trustworthy numbers. Polling is grounded in science; take a random sample of "1,000 sentient beings in the universe" and you'll get a reflection of their views to plus or minus three per cent. "The problem is we never achieve a random sample," Page says. That's where the art comes in: going to find people, knowing who you're talking to, is what matters as efforts to 'weight' data
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