YOUR FRIENDS' ACTIVITY

    Talking Politics

    Another chance to stop the Lisbon treaty?

    Politics makes strange bedfellows, but there's nothing quite as satisfying as watching Eurosceptics become allies with other Europeans to bring the European project to a halt.

    Those Eurosceptic eyes will be firmly on Germany today, as the country's highest court decides on the constitutional legality of the Lisbon treaty - the revised version of the EU Constitution which French and Dutch voters rejected.

    There are two questions to consider. Firstly, will the court find against the treaty? Secondly, will it stop the treaty?

    The court case itself is not a Mickey Mouse exercise undertaken for the sake of it. Peter Gauweiler, the Christian Social Union politician challenging the treaty, is a serious-minded individual. He had some success limiting the impact of the 1992 Maastricht treaty on Germany, ensuring 'constitutional priority' for the country. After his efforts, it became the only state with a slight difference in how the treaty operated.

    The Federal Constitutional Court is also encouragingly unpredictable when it comes to this sort of case. It's famously jealous of its constitutional prerogative in Germany, recently overturning smoking bans within Germany because of their effect on businesses. Basically, it frequently does things the government doesn't like. In this case, European insiders admit the case could go either way. It's a 50-50 chance.

    But if it goes against the treaty the repercussions are far from clear. On the one hand, it's difficult to envisage how the Lisbon project could continue with one of the EU major players mired in constitutional wrangles. Polish disgruntlement and Irish rejection may not amount to much in the hallways of the EU, but a German problem is a very big problem indeed.

    On the other, European leaders have proved adept at casting difficulties to one side. Popular votes have so far done nothing to stop Lisbon being accepted across the EU, indicating a court judgement might have even less impact. On a theoretical level, a negative judgement should shut everything down. But in practise, intense pressure will be brought to bear to find a way out.

    British Eurosceptics expect this. They are playing a long game, with a focus on Germany, Ireland, Poland and the Czech Republic. Enough resistance in enough forms in enough countries could still bring a halt to European dreams.

    Ian Dunt

    WRITTEN BY...