* Protests shrink after two ministers quit over jail
brutality
* Analysts say case hurts ruling party ahead of elections
* Election result in ex-Soviet republic not clear yet
TBILISI, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Hundreds of people rallied in
Georgia on Friday in a fourth day of protests over brutality in
state prisons, a bout of unrest that could damage prospects for
President Mikheil Saakashvili's party to come out on top in
elections on Oct. 1.
The protests, which broke out after two television channels
that back Saakashvili's opponents showed footage of prison
abuses, have saddled him with an unexpectedly tough election
battle against a coalition led by a billionaire businessman.
About 500 people gathered in the capital Tbilisi on Friday,
markedly fewer than before the resignation of the prisons and
interior ministers in mid-week. But analysts said public anger
over violence in jails threatens the ruling National Movement
party's chances of winning the coming parliamentary vote.
The opposition Georgian Dream coalition led by billionaire
Bidzina Ivanishvili was 20 percentage points behind
Saakashvili's party before the protests.
"The ruling party will (now) get fewer votes than had been
expected, of course, but it's difficult to predict how big the
decline will be," said Gia Nodia, an independent analyst.
"It's not clear whether Georgian Dream will get these votes
or another opposition party."
He said the exit of the ministers and Saakashvili's moves -
he quickly denounced the abuses - had largely been effective.
But Shorena Shaverdashvili, editor-in-chief of the
independent Liberal magazine, said Saakashvili's party could now
lose an election it had seemed certain to win in the former
Soviet republic.
"If elections are free and fair, the ruling party has no
chance of winning, but a lot will depend on the voter turnout,"
Shaverdashvili said. "The system has been shaken. Even
Saakashvili himself admitted that it was a systemic failure."
Hours after the release of the prison video, Saakashvili
promised to punish those responsible and seek radical reforms of
the jail system, asking policemen to take over prison guard
duties while reforms were being worked out.
Saakashvili's government says the video, which shows guards
beating, punching and humiliating prisoners, as well as inmates
being raped with objects, was staged and recorded by guards who
were bribed by "politically motivated persons".
The head of the Tbilisi prison, his two deputies and several
prison guards were arrested, while international organisations
and human rights groups called for a prompt investigation.
Ivanishvili, his fortune estimated by Forbes magazine at
$6.4 billion, owns one of the broadcasters that showed the film.
A once-reclusive tycoon whose wealth equals nearly half
Georgia's economic output, Ivanishvili launched his political
movement last year and has campaigned on calls for Saakashvili
to resign.
Saakashvili became the West's political darling when he rose
to power after the bloodless "Rose Revolution" that toppled
Eduard Shevardnadze, a former Soviet foreign minister, in 2003.
But opponents have accused Saakashvili of curbing political
freedoms and criticised him for leading Georgia - a country of
4.7 million people on a transit route for oil and gas supplies
across the volatile Caucasus region - into a brief but
disastrous war with Russia in August 2008.
