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    Greek Bailout Deal 'Won't End Euro Crisis'

    Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos was right in his claim that eurozone ministers would finally agree a second bailout for the country - but the deal still leaves questions unanswered.

    The crunch summit could prevent the country from missing a 14.5bn euro (£12bn) coupon repayment this time next month, in turn avoiding a messy un-negotiated default.

    The deal should plot a path for Greece to bring its national debt back down towards 120% of gross domestic product.

    What is not at all obvious is that this does anything to remove the uncertainty hanging over the Greek economy.

    Yes, it will essentially be saved from having to raise cash in the private capital markets, for the time being.

    But what will be left of the Greek economy, or indeed society?

    And what lessons does this provide about the euro project? The omens are not promising.

    Here are six questions - or problems - that will not be answered by the deal.

    1: First, and perhaps most worryingly, the Greek economic collapse has now reached almost unprecedented proportions.

    The country's economy shrank by 7% last year. Before the crisis, the country's annual economic output was about the same as Switzerland's.

    By the end, it will be barely bigger than the Czech Republic's.

    In all, economists expect it to shrink by as much as 25-30%. That would be the biggest single recession ever - by far worse than the US experience in the Great Depression, worse even than the collapse of the Argentinian economy during its own default crisis.

    An economy cannot collapse by this much without causing direct erosion of families' incomes, particularly given the particular variety of contraction opted for by the euro ministers is austerity.

    So do not be surprised if those riots we are seeing so regularly in Athens continue. The real worry, of course, is not just riots, but the prospect that the Greek people eventually lurch towards a more extremist government, or the military take matters into their own hands.

    That, after all, is precisely how many economies reacted to austerity in the 1930s, as this recent paper from Barry Eichengreen shows .

    2: The deal will not necessarily reduce Greece's overall debt to a sustainable level. The target is to cut total debt - as a percentage of national income - to 120%.

    But there is plenty of evidence that this level is simply too high for an economy with the growth problems Greece is exhibiting.

    Moreover, that 120% seems to be more of an aspiration than anything else, relying on hopelessly optimistic growth and budget projections for the coming decades.

    3: Even if this deal is successful in averting a messy default, it will not necessarily prevent a so-called 'credit event'.

    Private sector bondholders will take a 'haircut' on their holdings of Greek debt, which will be viewed as a default by credit ratings agencies.

    It will very possibly be viewed as a 'credit event' which triggers credit default swaps - the kind of opaque financial instruments which caused such fear after Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008.

    Now, we are told investors are prepared for this contingency given how much time they have had to dwell on it, but it would be foolhardy to expect the entire process to go smoothly.

    4: Greece is still deep in debt. It is just that much of the debt which was previously owed to the private sector is now owed to other euro governments (and the ECB).

    .

    Mr Venizelos will not have any closure until the country reduces that debt-load.

    That is not going to happen through growth, it is not going to happen through devaluation (unless Greece leaves the euro), so it will have at some point to happen through default - either another, more convincing default or high inflation across the euro area.

    The latter is unpalatable for the Bundesbank-influenced ECB. But, in the end someone will have to take the hit.

    It is still unclear who that will be, except that the structure of the current deal imposes all the pain on the Greek people.

    5: The euro project is clearly failing.

    It was supposed to encourage its member states to become more closely aligned economically.

    As it stands, their competitiveness has diverged. As long as this endures, Greece and its Mediterranean neighbours will have to keep receiving subsidies from the richer euro members.

    Greece may have been an outlier in that regard, but many of its traits are shared by Portugal, Italy and Spain.

    Now the Greek crisis is temporarily papered over, expect investors' attention to swing back to them.

    6: The ECB has bought the eurozone nations some time by flooding the continent's banking system with cash through its Long Term Repo Operations (LTRO).

    It is likely to pump an extra slug of money to add to its half-a-trillion euro total at the end of this month.

    However, this cash will not last forever (the loans have a term of three years), and does not represent a permanent firewall for the single currency.

    At some point, investors will lose patience and realise such measures fall far short of a meaningful solution for either Greece or the currency area's woes.

     

    16 comments

    • Frank  •  Anatoli, Greece  •  3 months ago
      I'll write a comment but it seems that these people who run this site don't like what I have
      to say and have deletetd just about all that I've written, perhaps it's because it's too near the truth, we live here in Greece for the time being and see more than the other countries read about. Yes, they have the bailout they want and we would'nt be surprised that they
      will take the money and then default, it seems that is the way of the Greeks sadly.
      They will never get out of this debt and unless they return to another currency,i.e. the
      Drachma and start working from the beginning all over there is no hope for Greece sdaly !
    • The_Fox  •  Maidenhead, England  •  3 months ago
      Well here is until the Greeks run out of money AGAIN!, and then come cap in hand once more.
      What a joke
      • ukgirl 3 months ago
        You say it like it is what the greek people want, they dont they never wanted to be in the euro but got no choice, now they suffer while the government and bankers become more rich.
    • Tony  •  3 months ago
      Why do you all blame the Greeks? We could have been in the same boat ourselves.It is always the ordinary people that suffer most. What has the Euro ever done for Greece ? Nothing.
      • Scotty 3 months ago
        Well done for supporting the Greek people,I`ve lived in this country over20years,I`m not Greek but I only have admiration for these hard-working people,believe me it`s not their fault that they find themselves in this position,it`s the fault of corrupt politicians,so don`t all be so quick to judge them.
    • Robert  •  3 months ago
      Just window dressing the chances of Greece turning their economy around are nill.
    • seen it all before  •  3 months ago
      The foundations of the EU are built on sand and will crumble and fall. Time for Brussels to wake up the party is almost over.
      • Redstone 3 months ago
        The unfortunate thing is they will never wake up, and if they ever do it`ll be everyone else`s fault except their own. They may wake up after the elections in Greece in April as it is looking probable that the new government in Greece who ever they are will tell Brussels either they renegotiate the bail-out or they will go their own way.
    • Steptoe  •  3 months ago
      Another waste of money, for Gods sake let them leave the Euro and go back to the drachma.... They will only default again, they are like blackmailers, we give them money, they assure us they wont be back for more and then a little while later they are back again wanting more money...... Quite frankly i am sick of this now, the Greek populace are like spoilt kids, they get themselves in to this mess with ever shortening working hours, ever increasing holidays and ever shorting working lives, they create non jobs and they dont pay their taxes, then they blame all this on someone else and want bailing out. Simple lesson folks, dont spend what you dont have.
    • Carl S  •  Basildon, England  •  3 months ago
      theres a basic leason to be learnt here - managing your income and expenditure. you can not spend what you dont have and if you borrow you have to pay back.
      its simple maths. again some times we have to go without to get what we want.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  3 months ago
      The Greek people have to learn that rioting will not solve anything and the only way to get out of this huge mess is by everyone pulling together and austerity measures although painfull for the people will gradually help them all, the poorest are always hardest hit and it seems unfair but this is how it always is, the rich feel these measures much less because of their cushioning with money sad as it is the Greeks are going to have to bear this and all the rioting in the world won't help.
      • Tony 3 months ago
        They are all in this together ? We have rioters over here about nothing. It is human beings that are suffering, not economists' computers.
    • blackcap  •  Sheffield, England  •  3 months ago
      It is perfectly obvious the new Greek bailout is not now about the Euro as such -it is to save the face of the Euro-fanatics including our very own LIB-Dems. The whole project was a political nonsense rather than an economic necessity..One size does not fit all as anyone except Brussels and their fellow travellers can plainly see.
      • Dan 3 months ago
        I think you're absolutely right about the fanatics, but I also believe that those same fanatics are so hellbent on preserving their "empire" they will do ANYTHING and that includes saving the euro, rather than admit it wont work and it was wrong. They will spend any amount of money and sacrifice anyone or anything which may threaten their plans.
    • Adam  •  St Albans, England  •  3 months ago
      Keep pouring money into that pit ......................................
    • B  •  Grantham, England  •  3 months ago
      the euro is bound to fail in the long term, only the pollititions wanted in the first place, I'm
      afraid they failed to realise that one size does not fit all, different cultures, and traditions
      will result inevitably to failure. What happens when Greece runs out of money next time,
      another begging bowl, and more borrowing. This of course will appeal to the socialists,
      taking from the rich and giving to the poor,,But what happens when the rich run out?
    • Neogenyx  •  3 months ago
      Greek ministers are currently seeking a loop hole in the austerity measures that will allow them to finance an expediton in search of the Golden Fleece...
    • Anthony  •  Manchester, England  •  3 months ago
      DEFAULT and then kick out the wall street bankers and their political stooges that are in their government. Do the same as Argentina did in 2001.
    • SIBBY FENWICK  •  Birmingham, England  •  3 months ago
      This is all so sad, As with Ireland,Portugal, Spain etc. their governments all thought they could ride the gravy train, it is now derailing. EUMP's want a wage increase. The Greek finance minister could do with going on a diet. great tub of lard. If you can't afford anything you save until you can. SIMPLES. Germany now say it is pay back time having failed in 1939/45
    • jonathan  •  Manchester, England  •  3 months ago
      It's about time we joined the eurozone and sorted johnny foreigner out, they just can't manage without our superior erudition
    • Ray  •  Maidenhead, England  •  3 months ago
      I don't think the Greeks will be buying back the Elgin Marbles for quite some time.