Immigration Figures Set To Embarrass Cameron

Figures to be released later this morning will show the Prime Minister has all but certainly missed his promise of getting net migration down to the tens of thousands.

The Office of National Statistics numbers are likely to show continued strong immigration from the rest of the European Union and will be leapt upon by UKIP to argue that only by leaving the EU can numbers be controlled.

Getting net migration down to below 100,000 by May 2015 had been a "No ifs, no buts" promise by David Cameron.

In recent days, those ifs, those buts have come, with Home Secretary Theresa May admitting that the target had been "blown off course" because of internal EU migration.

And that was down to Britain's booming economy.

The most recent figures released in the summer showed net migration into the UK increased by more than 38% to 243,000 over the past year to March 2014.

And EU citizens, including those from new members Romania and Bulgaria, accounted for 66% of the growth from the previous figure of 175,000.

Immigration has become the dominant issue in British politics, costing the Conservatives two seats and causing splits within Labour.

While ministers in private have admitted for some time that the target could not be met, Ms May's admission and today's figures are significant.

Not just on colouring the Conservatives record this Parliament, but the impact it will have on the next.

If the Tories do start renegotiating with the rest of the EU on Britain's place in it, they have made clear the principle of the free movement of people will be on the agenda.

Downing Street believe changes to that principle and further toughening of access to benefits will help to combat the threat from UKIP.

In an interview that will irritate the Tory leadership, Ken Clarke, speaking on Sky News on Sunday, hit out at their approach to immigration, arguing it should be talked about less.

However he is certainly in the minority of the Conservative parliamentary party.

The continued rise of UKIP, the ratcheting up of language and increased pressure on achieving success in Europe is piling pressure on Mr Cameron and on a keynote speech he is due to deliver on immigration shortly.

He has long argued that Britain's best place is remaining part of the European Union, albeit a reformed EU.

But with the issue now so firmly wedded to immigration and large questions over what can be achieved in any renegotiation, the Prime Minister may well box himself into arguing for Britain to leave and that is not a box he wants to find himself in.