The Mitchell gambit: Can he survive until Wednesday?

By Ian Dunt

Andrew Mitchell is facing an uphill battle to survive the first days of the new political season, as his political career hangs by a thread.

MPs are returning to Westminster for the start of the new parliamentary term today, but Mitchell is still the main subject on their lips.

The chief whip will need to survive a meeting of the Tory backbench 1922 committee tomorrow night, when Conservative MPs determined to keep their seats at the next general election ask why David Cameron is permitting the Mitchell row to smear the party's reputation.

Cameron is famously loyal to his colleagues and extremely reluctant to fire those around him who find themselves hunted by the press pack.

But the Mitchell row is particularly damaging because his alleged 'plebs' rant corresponds to voters' worst suspicions of the Tory party.

If MPs' murmurings and the 1922 committee does not finish him, the chief whip will have to be present for the first PMQs of the season, in which he is bound to be the subject of Ed Miliband's attacks.

Downing Street looks determined to protect the chief whip, probably because the opportunity for him to leave office gracefully has now passed and any exit now would barely help Camron's growing reputation for dithering over ministerial rows.

Cabinet secretaries were sent out to defend the chief whip over the weekend. Chris Grayling attacked the Police Federation for using the Mitchell row as a stick to hit the government over police reform and spending cuts.

Phillip Hammond used Radio 4's Any Questions? to urge people to move on.

"We've now got other people who were not involved in the incident who seem to be trying to hijack this issue now and take it forward for their own purposes," he said.

"The man's apologised, the person he insulted has accepted the apology, let's draw a line.

"The House of Commons will be back on Monday. Andrew Mitchell will be performing his duties as chief whip. I don't really buy the argument that he can't do the job. I think he can do the job."

So far the chief whip has apologised twice and stayed away from the Conservative conference, which took place in his own constituency, in an attempt to end the row – all to no avail.