1. Philadelphia Eagles 11-6
2. Dallas Cowboys 11-6 (Wild Card)
3. New York Giants 8-9
4. Washington Commanders 7-10
Eagles: Game scripts result in Jalen Hurts throwing more in 2023, helping him finish as fantasy’s No. 1 QB … Both are elite, but DeVonta Smith surprisingly produces more fantasy points than A.J. Brown this season, while Dallas Goedert disappoints, thanks to a lack of touchdowns … Philadelphia’s backfield is mostly a fantasy headache, but Rashaad Penny produces multiple top-five RB weeks … The Eagles are loaded on both sides (Jalen Carter wins Rookie Defensive Player of the Year) and coached well, so they remain one of the few NFC favorites.
Cowboys: Dak Prescott bounces back from an INT-filled season, thanks to CeeDee Lamb emerging as a true alpha, the addition of Brandin Cooks and a much healthier Michael Gallup in tow. Prescott will also benefit from no Ezekiel Elliott at the goal line, and there’s a chance Mike McCarthy is more pass-heavy ... Tony Pollard is my No. 2 fantasy back entering the year, while Deuce Vaughn and Jake Ferguson are fantasy sleepers … Micah Parsons wins Defensive Player of the Year, and Jerry Jones wins owner of the year.
Giants: Daniel Jones finishes as a top-eight fantasy QB, ahead of Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson … Jalin Hyatt produces spike weeks, but the Giants’ WR group forms a frustrating rotation for fantasy managers … Meanwhile, Darren Waller finishes behind only Travis Kelce among fantasy tight ends … Saquon Barkley has his best season since his rookie year, but the Giants fall short of the postseason.
Commanders: Sam Howell breaks out and finishes as a top-15 fantasy QB, thanks in part to his running ability. While Terry McLaurin deals with lingering turf toe, Jahan Dotson emerges as Washington’s top fantasy receiver in 2023 … Cole Turner is a deep sleeper at tight end who eventually makes waiver wire noise … Brian Robinson overtakes Antonio Gibson in the Commanders backfield, finishing as a top-25 RB … A shaky offensive line ultimately prevents Washington from making a leap into the playoffs, but the Commanders are clearly moving in the right direction.
1. Detroit Lions 10-7
2. Green Bay Packers 9-8 (Wild Card)
3. Minnesota Vikings 9-8
4. Chicago Bears 5-12
Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs finishes as a top-10 fantasy back and is worth a third-round fantasy pick, while Sam LaPorta is an excellent late-round TE flier … Jameson Williams is a fantasy bust, but Amon-Ra St. Brown catches 120+ balls and scores 10+ touchdowns … Jared Goff becomes intriguing if your fantasy format allows you to start him only at home (23:3 TD:INT compared to 6:4 on the road last year) … Detroit quietly had one of the league’s best offenses last season, and OC Ben Johnson returns in 2023. The Lions are coached well, improved their defense over the second half last season and enter with one of the league’s best offensive lines. The Lions win their division for the first time since 1993.
Packers: Green Bay enters 2023 depending entirely on Jordan Love’s readiness to take over for Aaron Rodgers. Love has impressed during the preseason, with Luke Musgrave emerging as yet another strong late-round flier at tight end … Christian Watson has one of the widest range of fantasy outcomes among all players in 2023, while Aaron Jones has a higher floor than ceiling … The Packers have a strong roster and coaching staff and sneak into the playoffs this year.
Vikings: Kirk Cousins relied more on volume than ever before last season, and he’ll need to improve his YPA dramatically to live up to his ADP … Justin Jefferson continues to smash and makes up for last year’s quiet finish … Jordan Addison became the most intriguing rookie fantasy wideout with Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s wrist injury, but T.J. Hockenson struggles to live up to his lofty ADP … Alexander Mattison breaks down under a heavier workload, with Ty Chandler becoming a popular waiver wire add.
Bears: Justin Fields goes down as one of the best draft picks, as he finishes in the top tier among fantasy QBs while going rounds later. Fields is a real threat to be the QB1 this season ... DJ Moore helps Chicago immensely but fails to live up to fantasy expectations … Khalil Herbert dusts Roschon Johnson and finishes as a top-15 fantasy back.
1. New Orleans Saints 9-8
2. Atlanta Falcons 8-9
3. Carolina Panthers 7-10
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-12
Saints: Derek Carr appears to have prepared for this season differently than last, which helps Chris Olave further erupt to join the league’s truly elite receivers … Rashid Shaheed scores more fantasy points than Michael Thomas, while Kendre Miller emerges as the best Saints fantasy back … New Orleans quietly finished sixth in adjusted net yards per attempt last season, sandwiched between the Cowboys and Bengals. The Saints have the league’s most favorable schedule in 2023 and may not have to play a cold weather game all year, leading to a division title.
Falcons: Bijan Robinson earns his first-round ADP and wins Rookie of the Year, while Drake London finishes as a top-15 fantasy wideout … Kyle Pitts finally breaks out fully ... The Falcons have a highly favorable schedule, a strong offensive line, an improving defense and elite players at WR, TE and RB but will go only as far as Desmond Ridder takes them in 2023.
Panthers: Bryce Young overcomes height issues and turns in a solid rookie season … Miles Sanders is a big fantasy disappointment, as Chuba Hubbard becomes a viable fantasy starter at times … Jonathan Mingo leads Carolina receivers in fantasy points, with Adam Thielen and DJ Chark wasted picks … It’s a growth season for the Panthers.
Buccaneers: The Buccaneers have highly questionable coaching and go from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield at quarterback this season … Rachaad White is a fantasy bust, while Sean Tucker is a sleeper ... Mike Evans bounces back and has more fantasy points than Chris Godwin ... Tampa Bay scored the second-fewest points in the NFC last season with Brady and is expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2023.
1. San Francisco 49ers 12-5
2. Seattle Seahawks 11-6 (Wild Card)
3. Los Angeles Rams 4-13
4. Arizona Cardinals 3-14
49ers: Brock Purdy finishes as a top-12 fantasy QB, thanks to playing in Kyle Shanahan’s system and throwing to stars at the skill positions. Purdy, who led the NFL in touchdown passes after becoming the starter as a rookie, has sneaky rushing ability and is throwing harder after elbow surgery, and has the most egregious ADP among all players this summer … Christian McCaffrey remains a monster when healthy, but Elijah Mitchell provides RB1 fantasy stats during weeks he misses … George Kittle suffers touchdown regression, while Brandon Aiyuk explodes and emerges as SF’s top fantasy receiver … The Trey Lance era didn’t go quite as planned in San Francisco, including the team giving away a player younger than rookie Will Levis to a conference rival. At least the 49ers never deal with injuries and have never suffered from lacking quarterback depth at an important time … Nick Bosa holding out all summer and an incredibly unbalanced rest schedule are two other concerns, although Javon Hargrave will be joining a loaded defense … The 49ers had the NFL’s best point-differential (+178) and were the only team to finish top five both in yards per play and yards per play against last season, so it’s Super Bowl or bust in 2023.
Seahawks: Geno Smith benefits from Seattle drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba and throws for 35 touchdowns, while Kenneth Walker adds a dozen rushing scores on a potent Seahawks offense … DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are both top-15 fantasy wide receivers over the first half of the season, but it’s Smith-Njigba who scores the most points among Seattle WRs in the fantasy playoffs. JSN is a top-five dynasty wideout and will be drafted as a top-15 WR in 2024 … The Seahawks are dangerous and a real threat to win the NFC this season.
Rams: Matthew Stafford rebounds but gets little help ... Cooper Kupp leads the league in targets per game but misses multiple contests … Cam Akers dominated work down the stretch last season but forms a full-blown committee with Kyren Williams in 2023 … Tyler Higbee is among the target leaders at his position and finishes as a top-10 fantasy tight end … The Rams sold out to win a Super Bowl in 2022 and will continue to pay for it this season with arguably the worst defense in football.
Cardinals: Clayton Tune, Joshua Dobbs and a recovering Kyler Murray provide shaky QB play on a curious Arizona roster ... James Conner misses more than half the season, making Keaontay Ingram a deep fantasy sleeper … Rookie Michael Wilson scores more fantasy points than Rondale Moore, while Trey McBride outperforms Zach Ertz … Marquise Brown finishes as a top-15 WR in fantasy points per game … Murray struggled mightily last season and will now be missing DeAndre Hopkins after he eventually returns from knee surgery. The Cardinals are underdogs in every game and are projected to finish with the worst record in the NFL this season. With a new regime in Arizona, the countdown to Caleb Williams has begun.
MVP: Joe Burrow
Offensive Player of the Year: Ja’Marr Chase
Rookie of the Year: Bijan Robinson
Defensive Player of the Year: Micah Parsons
Coach of the Year: Robert Saleh
NFC championship game: 49ers over Eagles
AFC championship game: Bengals over Chiefs
Super Bowl: 49ers over Bengals
Last year I had the Chiefs over the Eagles and nailed OPOY and DPOY (#lookatme), so expect worse results in 2023.