2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie


We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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The State of the Race

To hear the roar of the crowd at the 2024 National Hispanic Media Coalition Impact Awards Gala as Jodie Foster came out to present her “True Detective: Night Country” helmer Issa López the Trailblazer Award, and talk about them discussing “industry chisme,” one could recognize the veteran actress still has the power to win over any crowd.

And pulling back, the success of the fourth season of the crime anthology is proof of that as well, setting series viewership records in a time where Peak TV has passed. Every year, the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie Emmy category is a gauntlet for the top talent working today. It is regularly filled with Oscar winners like “Expats” star Nicole Kidman and “The Regime” star Kate Winslet, who won for previous shows, so a nomination is the best company to be in.

Brie Larson, another Oscar winner, fits that mold with her Apple TV+ series “Lessons in Chemistry,” which did not necessarily take over the cultural zeitgeist, but did do really well during guild season, even winning a DGA Award. With the Emmys being another award given by industry peers, it is hard to count her out.

But another incredibly charming presence during these initial Emmys campaigns has been “Griselda” star Sofia Vergara, who has spoken really thoughtfully, and with plenty of humor, about breaking out of the “Modern Family” mold to play a more dramatic, more monstrous character. Again, she has four nominations to her name, so Vergara is kind of considered homegrown talent among the Emmy crowd. Her win would make her the first Latina to receive the Emmy in this category as well. [Note: this is the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.]

Naomi Watts is another actress whose name comes up when people talk about performers who have been overlooked for major awards. “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” did not make the kind of noise FX was likely hoping for, but the reaction has still been that it gave its Swans some of the best roles they’ve had in recent years, Watts being the primary example of that. It could very well be her time, too. There seems to never be a wrong answer in choosing the Emmy winner for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie each year.

Predicted Nominees:
Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO)
Nicole Kidman, “Expats” (Prime Video)
Brie Larson, “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Sofia Vergara, “Griselda” (Netflix)
Naomi Watts, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)

Joey King, “We Were the Lucky Ones” (Hulu)
Juno Temple, “Fargo” (FX)
Kate Winslet, “The Regime” (HBO)

Also Consider This:
Alaqua Cox, “Echo” (Disney+)
Carla Gugino, “The Fall of the House of Usher” (Netflix)
Aria Mia Lobereti, “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix)

More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: Ali Wong, “Beef”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: There is no network that is on a hot streak necessarily, as the last few years has seen performances on shows from different places be awarded, but there is a chance that Kate Winslet wins a second Emmy in a row for leading “The Regime,” her first series since “Mare of Easttown.”
Notable Ineligible Series: Anne Hathaway, “The Idea of You” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); Dakota Johnson, “Am I Ok?” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible); Eva Longoria, “Land of Women” (the season will not air in time to be eligible)

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