The £65million problem Manchester United are sleepwalking into

An official Champions League match ball in the arms of Luke Shaw of Manchester United during the UEFA Champions League match between Manchester United and FC Bayern Munich
-Credit: (Image: Reach Publishing Services Limited)


Manchester United have become used to seeing title challenges fade early in the season, but after their worst start to a Premier League campaign, they are also facing the prospect of being out of the top-four race by the end of October.

A club that budgets for the Champions League are becoming more familiar with the routine of the Europa League and Thursday night football. For the second time in the last three seasons, United are among Europe’s B-listers from the get-go.

This club threatened to form part of the breakaway Super League, and you can increasingly see why the Glazers were tempted by that pot of gold at the end of a particularly murky rainbow. There is no longer any guarantee that United have the quality on the pitch to guarantee a seat at the top table.

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This season, they are 14th after seven games, and with the race for Champions League places now hotter than ever in the Premier League, Erik ten Hag’s side are already significant outsiders to secure a spot for next season. That would present a sizeable headache for Sir Jim Ratcliffe, who intends to make this club profitable after his £1.25bn investment in February. That won’t be possible without Champions League football.

For a clear understanding of the gap in revenue, just look at the figures. When United last reached the Champions League quarter-finals in 2018/19 they took home £93.1m. When they reached the Europa League quarter-finals in 2022/23 it was just £37.5m.

If this season doesn't recover then once again United will see the value of their Adidas shirt deal drop by £10m, with a clause written into the new nine-year contract starting in 2025/26 that penalises the club if they don't reach the Champions League.

The importance of that competition to the club is clear and was laid out in black and white in the annual report. Take this bit on Europe: "Qualification for the Champions League is largely dependent upon our men’s first team’s performance in the Premier League and, in some circumstances, the Champions League or Europa League in the previous season. Qualification for the Champions League cannot, therefore, be guaranteed.

"Failure to qualify for the Champions League would result in a material reduction in revenue for each season in which our men’s first team did not participate. To help mitigate this impact the majority of playing contracts for our first team include step-ups in remuneration which are contingent on participation in the group stage of the Champions League."

This is aimed at investors and details the risks associated with backing a football club. On-field success is never guaranteed but in United's case, it's increasingly unlikely as well. Then there is the damage done to a reputation and the ability to attract and keep the best players that becoming Europa League regulars can cause.