Analysis - England pack key as Lancaster seeks midfield mix

By Mitch Phillips LONDON (Reuters) - It is fortunate for coach Stuart Lancaster that England's best chance of winning the World Cup on home soil is through the dominance of their forwards, as the backline remains a work in progress with no end in sight. When Billy Twelvetrees and Brad Barritt line up for Saturday’s match against Australia they will be the 41st centre pairing used since the 2003 World Cup final, Lancaster’s 11th and his fifth in the last six games. In contrast, Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davis will start together for the 33rd time for Wales against South Africa in Cardiff on Saturday. After an initial experiment with Owen Farrell at 12 – repeated with little success last week – Lancaster seemed to have a settled pairing with Manu Tuilagi and Brad Barritt in his first season in charge. True, they did not create much, but with Lancaster’s first need being to steady the England ship after a poor 2011 World Cup, the fact that they barely missed a tackle and brought even more power to the team made them ideal. Injuries brought that partnership to an end and for this year’s Six Nations, after a brief flirtation with rugby league convert Joel Tomkins, Lancaster again seemed settled with Twelvetrees and Luther Burrell. A semi-fit Twelvetrees had a poor game in New Zealand, however, raising doubts about his concentration levels, and was dropped as Lancaster cast the net again. Jamie Joseph and Kyle Eastmond, both excellent attacking runners, were tried, while Barritt came back into favour. SUCCESSFUL MODEL Twelvetrees gets the chance again this week, when Lancaster will want penetration and creativity at 12, with Barritt offering defensive solidity and organisation outside him – just as in the successful model of Will Greenwood and Mike Tindall at England’s 2003 peak. "By the end of this series we will have learned a lot about who can deliver," Lancaster said on Thursday after naming his team to face the Wallabies 11 months before the teams meet again in the World Cup. "Billy has the chance to nail down the shirt for the Six Nations," he added, accepting that with only nine games remaining before the start of the World Cup time was running out for any more experiments. With Tuilagi expected to return to the fold in the New Year, and a probable starter at 13, Lancaster still has to decide who works best alongside him. The prospect of rugby league convert Sam Burgess teaming up in a bulldozing double act with Tuilagi must be a tempting one for Lancaster, though it remains a long shot. Burgess, fresh from winning Australia’s rugby league grand final with South Sydney, is set for his first union start off the bench for Bath on Friday but could well be used in the back row by his new club. Lancaster’s midfield decisions are further complicated by the lack of certainty regarding the selections around them. Farrell looked nailed on at flyhalf but has been dropped this week as George Ford gets a chance to make the shirt his own. Any one of four scrumhalves could be first choice by next September with Ben Youngs, Richard Wigglesworth, Danny Care and Lee Dickson all still in the mix. SETTLED PACK Jonny May and Anthony Watson are the latest to get their hands on the wingers’ shirts and have both played well in the November series. Lancaster would no doubt love to see them stay there after having to deal with almost as many changes out wide as in midfield. All of which must make it extra reassuring that his pack is looking largely settled, and highly competitive. Despite continual reservations from some observers, Chris Robshaw remains his first choice at openside flanker and the captain again led the way with more than 20 tackles in last weekend's victory over Samoa. Tom Wood, dropped for the first time by Lancaster for that match, is back at blindside, with Ben Morgan and Billy Vunipola likely to take their battle for the number eight slot all the way to the World Cup. Joe Launchbury's injury broke up his impressive second-row partnership with Courtney Lawes but the upside for Lancaster has been more game time for Dave Attwood and some impressive cameos off the bench by the previously uncapped George Kruis. Dylan Hartley, for all his continuing disciplinary problems, remains a top-notch hooker and England's lineout has been superb with him at the helm. In the continuing absence of Alex Corbisiero, Dan Cole and Maku Vunipola, Dave Wilson and Joe Marler have also developed into excellent props. There is high quality and some strength in depth in the pack and if Lancaster can nail down some sort of settled backline England, for all their problems, are likely to be strong contenders next October. (Editing by Ken Ferris)