Yahoo News Andrew Sparrow's election briefing: party leaders make last push for support
Johnson and Corbyn get back to what they know
Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn have reverted to core campaigning mode, in terms of message and style, on the final day of an election campaign that has failed to enthuse the public but that could have profound consequences for the nation.
In polling terms, there has been very little movement in terms of the gap between the two main parties since the beginning of the campaign (although both the Conservatives and Labour have seen their share of the vote rise significantly, at the expense of the Brexit party and the Lib Dems) and this week’s YouGov MRP poll, which rightly or wrongly is assumed to be the best polling guide to the result, has the Tories heading for a majority of 28. But three weeks ago the same YouGov MRP poll had the Tories on course for a majority of 68.
The figures suggest a relatively small shift in headline polling numbers can make a big difference to seat numbers; three weeks ago YouGov had the Tories 11 points ahead, and this week it has the gap at nine points (Tories 43%, Labour 34%). And this week’s MRP analysis suggests that, although a Conservative majority of 28 is the central forecast, Johnson could end up with anything between 311 and 367 seats because of the margin of error – meaning a hung parliament (fewer than 326 seats) is a possibility.
Johnson’s favoured mode of campaigning has involved posing for photo opportunities, often in a blue-collar work environment with some Brexit metaphor to hand, and on Wednesday he has been delivering milk, baking (“oven-ready deal”) and doing his bit in a cracker factory. At one point he appeared to take refuge in an industrial fridge to avoid having to talk to Piers Morgan on live TV.
Corbyn prefers addressing rallies, and so far he has been speaking in Govan, Middlesbrough, and Rotherham, stressing his commitment to fighting poverty and rescuing the NHS. Jo Swinson has been urging people to vote Lib Dem to “stop Brexit”. And Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, has been arguing that the SNP is the party best placed to defeat the Tories in Scotland.
Barnier doubts UK/EU trade deal possible by end of 2020
Michel Barnier, the EU chief Brexit negotiator, has said it would be “unrealistic” for the EU to negotiate a comprehensive trade deal with the UK by the end next year. In a private meeting, a recording of which was leaked to the Independent, he said:
It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale.
This claim, which is only a marginally blunter version of what he has said in public and which reflects the near-universal consensus in Brussels, undermines Johnson’s view that he would be able to get a good trade deal negotiated by this time next year. Barnier said one option would to extend the transition period for a year or two. The Conservative party has ruled this out, but the government is likely to come under pressure to do this in the spring (because a decision would have to to be taken by 1 July) and in a speech today Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, said that if the Tories won the election, another Brexit crisis would erupt within months. He said:
If we get a Conservative majority, which I still think we will, we will be back in crisis by May next year as we face extension to the whole process, which has to be done by 1 July.
This was supposed to be the Brexit election. But Johnson, who has done his best to avoid heavyweight media scrutiny, has managed to get to the end of the campaign without having to explain how he will obtain the quick and beneficial trade deal he is promising, or what in detail it will entail. Commenting on Barnier’s comments, Labour’s Andrew Gwynne said:
Boris Johnson is playing the British public for fools. He’s hiding in fridges to dodge interviews precisely because his fake Brexit slogans can’t stand up to scrutiny, just like his empty words on the NHS. Johnson’s sell-out Brexit deal will put us on the fast-track to a cliff-edge no-deal Brexit.
Meanwhile
The Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price has called for a law to stop politicians lying to voters.
The “presidential” nature of a campaign dominated by the leaders of the two largest parties has been illuminated by research that also reveals how Labour and the Conservatives have hidden away senior figures deemed to be embarrassing or “off message”.
And the actor Steve Coogan says he has aways voted Labour but, in his constituency of Lewes, he will now vote Liberal Democrat to, in his words, “stop Johnson wreaking havoc”.
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