Anglesey schools fear as birth rates plunge, young migrate and over-65s settle

Old man holding cane
-Credit:Joe Giddens/PA Wire


Plummeting birth rates on Anglesey have prompted a review on further education provision on the island. Also underpinning the move is the continued inward migration of older people combined with an exodus of educated youngsters.

Anglesey Council is looking to reform post-16 education on the island and it is considering a radical shake-up that could see provision end at some of the island’s five further education schools. Another option could see all sixth form schools brought under one umbrella and operated by a single school provider.

The local authority said it wants to “continue to provide education fit for the 21st century”. But to achieve this it will have to respond to the island’s rapidly changing demographics that’s seen Anglesey becoming a place for older people.

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In the seven years to 2019, annual birth rates on Anglesey plunged more than a third, from 835 to 557. It’s since stabilised, with 565 births recorded by the Office for National Statistics last year. But already school reception class numbers have fallen and the council expects this impact to be felt by further education from 2033 onwards.

Meanwhile, Anglesey’s population is getting progressively older. The median age has risen from 45 years to 48 years, well above the all-Wales average of 42 years. The number of people aged 65 or above has increased by almost a fifth and this is forecast to continue.

This is being driven by two factors. Anglesey has a net out-migration of young people, especially men. While women typically leave between the ages of 18-30, men continue to move away until they’re in their mid-40s. In a report, the council said Anglesey was “struggling to get them to move back”. A lack of attractive jobs and affordable homes was part of the problem, it added.

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At the same time, the island risks becoming a retirement home for incomers. The local authority said older adults – especially those in their fifties or above – are relocating to the island. Many are “likely to be approaching or already retired, or in the downslope of their career”, said the report – though some may have been attracted by the idea of home working. Join the North Wales Live Whatsapp community now

How birth rates on Anglesey have fallen since 2012 (ONS figures)
How birth rates on Anglesey have fallen since 2012 (ONS figures) -Credit:Anglesey Council

Over the next decade, it’s estimated the number of Anglesey residents living beyond 85 years could rise by 70%. “This has positives in terms of spending,” said the report. “But it creates other issues around housing, housing affordability and, ultimately, demand for social care.”

All of which has combined to leave a post-16 education system with dwindling numbers and smaller class sizes. In some years, a fifth of courses have fewer than six students at each school or college. In other years, this percentage rises dramatically, with two-thirds of courses having fewer than six students.

As class sizes fall, and courses are rationalised, it’s left more and more students having to travel to “partnership” schools to access the courses they need. Over the past three years, the number of students who must travel to off-site to courses has varied from 15 % to 51%.

Anglesey Council said smaller schools, such as Ysgol Syr Thomas Jones, Amlwch, are disproportionately affected  by changing demographics
Anglesey Council said smaller schools, such as Ysgol Syr Thomas Jones, Amlwch, are disproportionately affected by changing demographics -Credit:Google

In turn, this has placed extra strain on already stretched school budgets, as these travel costs are paid out of post-16 grant allocations. In 2023-24, Anglesey’s sixth form schools spent £138,960. Smaller schools, with smaller classes sizes, are affected disproportionately.

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As it Anglesey Council is looking to react to the changing demographics and has launched a consultation setting out four possible options.

  • Option 1: No change - keep the current provision exactly as it is.

  • Option 2: Further develop closer working relationships between the existing providers.

  • Option 3: Reduce the number of schools providing post-16 education.

  • Option 4: All post-16 education delivered by a single provider.

Marc B Hughes, Anglesey’s director of education, skills and young people, said: “Our goal is to overcome the challenges we currently face and continue to ensure fairer opportunities for all of Anglesey’s children and young people. This will allow them to achieve their full potential and enjoy the best possible experiences during their school years.”

Ironically, the next five years are forecast to see modest rises at Anglesey’s sixth form schools. However the condition of four of them is graded at “C”, meaning they are “operational but major repair or replacement needed in the short to medium term”. Only Ysgol Uwchradd Bodedern is graded “B”, indicating it is “functionally safe and shows only minor deterioration”. The island’s five sixth form schools, and their total post-16 expenditures, are outlined below.

  • Ysgol Syr Thomas Jones (£401,395)

  • Ysgol Uwchradd Caergybi (£665,004)

  • Ysgol Gyfun Llangefni (£594,314

  • Ysgol David Hughes (£980,995)

  • Ysgol Uwchradd Bodedern (£558,101)

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Also providing post-16 courses on Anglesey is Grŵp Llandrillo Menai, which has a campus in Llangefni as well as sites in Bangor and at Glynllifon, Gwynedd. In the 2023-24 financial year, three of Anglesey sixth form schools had a post-16 overspend – Ysgol Syr Thomas Jones, Ysgol Gyfun Llangefni and Ysgol Uwchradd Bodedern.

Ironically, student numbers are each of the five schools is expected to rise over the next five years. The fear is what happens in the medium to long-term as demographic trends start to be felt.

Proportion of students in small, medium and larger class sizes
Proportion of students in small, medium and larger class sizes -Credit:Anglesey Council

The council’s post-16 report expects that, by 2035, sixth form student numbers will have fallen by a fifth. It said: “Demographic trends such as the number of learners born in 2020, 2021 and 2022, shows that in approximately 15 years, the number of post-16 learners at schools on Anglesey will reduce to approximately 448 learners, which is 19% less than the average for the past five years (551 post 16 learners). This is based on current predictions and economic outlook.”

The council’s Learning Service is now seeking views of students, parents, staff, governors and the public in a four-week engagement process. This includes an online survey as well as face-to-face sessions at the island’s five secondary schools, plus Grŵp Llandrillo Menai’s Llangefni campus – dates and times for these can be found here.

The engagement process ends on Friday, February 21. Urging people to get involved, education portfolio holder Cllr Dafydd Roberts said everyone’s views are “important”. Sign up for the North Wales Live newsletter sent twice daily to your inbox

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