Yahoo News 'Aren't you going insane?': readers' questions from beyond Brexitland
Having asked those of you living outside the UK if you were confused by the latest news from Brexitland, I got so many responses (thank you all) that I have grouped and paraphrased the most common ones so as to be able answer, at least approximately, as many as possible.
And I’ve mostly stuck to factual questions on the Brexit process. “Will Brexit finally teach Britain it no longer rules the world?” from (among others) Steve Norman in Canada, Ferdy in Dublin and Thijs in the Netherlands, warrants a book-length response, but not now.
Also, I’m not going into great detail explaining Brexit terminology: if you want answers to that I recommend the Guardian’s handy Brexit phrasebook which hopefully has most of it covered.
What are the ground rules of Brexit? I’m seriously confused (Danni, US)
Brexit is the process of the UK leaving the EU, which it narrowly voted in favour of in a referendum in June 2016. The process is governed by article 50 of the EU’s Treaty of Lisbon and is happening in two stages: first, the two sides negotiate their divorce deal (the “withdrawal agreement”), and after this they will sort out their future trading relationship. It’s proving problematic because the UK voted for a departure but not a destination: some think Britain should remain in a close relationship with the EU, with privileged access to its vast single market but having to obey its rules; others think its should strike out on its own, with greater control but less smooth trade. It’s complicated by the red lines set down by the prime minister, Theresa May, (ending the automatic right of EU citizens to settle in the UK, and leaving the EU’s single market and customs union) which exclude a lot of potential options.
Can you explain the Irish backstop? (Diane Dalton, US, with related questions from Ton Pasman and Leonie, Netherlands; Shona, Ireland; Dietmar Homberg, Germany; Elisabeth Sanfuchs, Belgium; Ayaz Ramji, Canada)
When the UK leaves the EU, the border between Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland, which is currently invisible, will become the EU’s only land border with the UK. Such a border normally requires customs and other controls. Nobody wants that, partly because nobody wants a return to the violence of the period before the Good Friday agreement, which removed border checks. In theory, the post-Brexit trading arrangements between the EU and the UK will avoid a “hard” border, but they could take years to negotiate so the EU has insisted on a “backstop” guaranteeing the absence of a hard border until those arrangements are in place. The backstop leaves the whole of the UK in a customs union with the EU “unless and until” the EU agrees it can leave. Brexiters do not like this at all.
Why is the deadline 29 March 2019 and what’s the problem with extending it? (Dawn, Canada; Jean Vigoureux, France)
Article 50 provides for two years of talks; the UK triggered it on 29 March 2017 so in principle it leaves automatically two years later. It can ask the EU27 for an extension, which they have said they would grant for a valid reason, such as sorting out the final details of a deal that has the support of a majority in the UK parliament. This now looks quite likely, but it may only last for a few months because a new European parliament is sworn in in July and EU rules require all member states to be represented – a problem if the UK is still a member. Experts think this could be resolved with a temporary fix, but the EU would rather avoid the hassle.
Can article 50 be revoked and how would the EU respond? (Benjamin Willumsen, Chile)
The European court of justice has ruled that the UK can revoke article 50 unilaterally at any time without the permission of the EU27 (who would be delighted, if annoyed by all the UK has put them through). There’s disagreement in the UK about whether it could be done by a simple vote by MPs or would need an act of parliament, but in any case it looks like the last thing the government would do.
Is there any chance of another referendum? (Michael Kerr, California; Johannes Meigen, Germany; David French, New Zealand; Laurent, France)
There isn’t a majority in parliament for a “people’s vote”, or second referendum, which both the Tory and Labour leaderships argue would undermine people’s faith in democracy. That could change, but one of the problems is the time it could take to organise another vote: the government says it would take a year, which is an exaggeration, but it would almost certainly take longer than the UK has left, and possibly longer than the relatively short extension likely to be favoured by the EU.
What is Labour’s position and why? Why does Jeremy Corbyn think he can negotiate a different or better deal with the EU than Theresa May? (Fernando Hervas, Belgium; Antje, Switzerland)
Labour’s position is complicated by the fact that under the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system, many of its MPs represent constituencies that voted to leave while most of its members and voters are pro-remain. Corbyn himself is also far from being a convinced pro-European. The party has sat on the fence until now – favouring a general election before all other options – but will soon have to come off it. If the EU agrees to rewrite parts of the withdrawal agreement, Labour could get a better deal than May if it dropped (some of) her red lines, but it has been as guilty as the Conservatives of pretending that Britain can leave the EU while retaining all the advantages of membership.
Have any trade deals been approved with non-EU nations? What are World Trade Organization terms, and why are they a bad thing? (Patrick Speer, Scotland and Liam, Australia)
Britain is not formally allowed to negotiate new trade deals while still an EU member. It has signed off on a text said to replicate current trading arrangements with Switzerland. Other than that, hardly any of the 68 trade deals from which the UK benefits as an EU member, and which it said it would have replicated by the time of departure, are near, and none will be ready by 29 March, according to the FT. Brexiters talk about “trading on WTO terms” as if it is what the world does, but it does not: it may trade under WTO rules, but all 164 members of the WTO have also agreed bilateral or regional trade deals that allow them to trade on much better terms than the WTO baselines. No sensible nation would leave the world’s largest single market, the EU, to trade with it on WTO terms, as would happen in the event of no deal.
What might happen in the the first weeks and months after a no-deal Brexit? I’m travelling to Britain in April – will my trip be disrupted, might there be food shortages? (Mark Singer and Gerry Patey, Canada; Francois Bry, Munich; Jean Ballanco, US)
As far as food shortages go, it’s anyone’s guess. Major British supermarket chains have started stockpiling tinned goods and MPs have said Britons may need to adopt a different diet, which does not sound promising, but it’s hard to imagine it coming to that. No deal would certainly be likely to cause disruption at airports; the European commission last month unveiled a temporary nine-month plan to keep planes in the air and goods and money flowing should the UK crash out, and Britain has the army standing by, but an awful lot of things we take for granted could change very suddenly if Britain leaves without a deal, including British visitors to Europe needing to apply for an online visa waiver similar to the the US Esta programme.
Does the Queen have any powers to intervene? (Vincent, Netherlands; Isabel Pitta, Brazil)
The monarch is not meant to get involved in politics. But she is the only person who can invite someone to form a government, and if Theresa May loses another no-confidence vote, she might have to. She would have 14 days to ask someone to form a new administration (including a cross-party option) providing it was clear they could command a majority in parliament. If no majority exists, new elections would automatically follow. The Queen, however, cannot dissolve parliament, having lost this power in the 2011 Fixed-term Parliament Act.
Will my daughter, who is French, need to apply for a visa to study in the UK? Will we need international driver’s licences? (K Joubert, France; Michael Lea, Spain)
European students currently studying in the UK or applying to start courses in 2019 will not face any additional restrictions because of Brexit, the government has said. It has warned, however, that UK drivers living in the EU should exchange their licence for a local one – and if possible get an international driving permit – as soon as possible in case of a no-deal Brexit, which might invalidate their UK licence, or mean they have to take a new driving test.
How do you get out of this mess? When will all the turmoil be over – aren’t you going insane? (Remo Casale, New Zealand; Georg Beck, Germany)
In order:
By the British government softening its red lines to allow it to arrive at a form of Brexit that is acceptable to both the EU27 and the UK parliament – something it should have done a long time ago – or, possibly, by holding a second referendum.
Not for quite a while yet.
Yes.
