These areas of the Isle of Wight could be underwater by 2030 study reveals

·2-min read
Research has revealed the locations at risk of being underwater by 2030. Picture: PA/Climate Central
Research has revealed the locations at risk of being underwater by 2030. Picture: PA/Climate Central

A study has revealed the areas of the Isle of Wight at risk of being underwater by the end of the decade.

The research was carried out by an independent organisation of leading scientists and journalists, collectively known as Climate Central, who investigate climate change and its impact on the public.

Using current projections, they have produced a map showing which areas of the country would be submerged by 2030.

Isle of Wight locations at risk from rising sea levels

Isle of Wight County Press: Swathes of the Isle of Wight are at risk from rising sea levels. Picture: Climate Central
Isle of Wight County Press: Swathes of the Isle of Wight are at risk from rising sea levels. Picture: Climate Central

Swathes of the Isle of Wight are at risk from rising sea levels. Picture: Climate Central

The Climate Central map reveals areas of the Isle of Wight coastline at risk of losing at least some land to the rising sea levels within less than a decade.

In the west, the projections show locations along the River Yar are at risk including Yarmouth, Freshwater and Afton. Moving east, the Hamstead Heritage coast could also be completely underwater in the next eight years.

The River Medina could cause problems for towns and villages along it banks, as far inland as Newport.

Over on the east of the island, Bembridge Harbour and much of St Helens is in the 'red zone'.

There is almost no part of the coast which isn't threatened with losing land to the sea.

Datasets include "some error"

Climate Central does admit the calculations that have led to fears of a nightmare scenario include "some error".

It says: "These maps incorporate big datasets, which always include some error. These maps should be regarded as screening tools to identify places that may require deeper investigation of risk."

The maps have been based on "global-scale datasets for elevation, tides and coastal flood likelihoods" and "imperfect data is used".

Somewhat comfortingly, Climate Central adds: "Our approach makes it easy to map any scenario quickly and reflects threats from permanent future sea-level rise well.

"However, the accuracy of these maps drops when assessing risks from extreme flood events.

"Our maps are not based on physical storm and flood simulations and do not take into account factors such as erosion, future changes in the frequency or intensity of storms, inland flooding, or contributions from rainfall or rivers."

But it adds: "Improved elevation data indicate far greater global threats from sea level rise and coastal flooding than previously thought, and thus greater benefits from reducing their causes."