A shock poll suggests voters in Wales are ditching Theresa May and heading back to Labour.
A poll by YouGov released today shows a 16-point swing in the past two weeks, with Labour up nine points and the Tories down seven – a result that puts Jeremy Corbyn’s party 10 points ahead.
Labour had looked particularly vulnerable in Wales in the early days of the campaign.
On 24 April, one remarkable poll (for the Cardiff University Governance Centre and ITV Cymru) put the Conservatives 10 points ahead in the Principality – where the Tories have not experienced election success for 167 years.
But the latest poll indicates that Mr Corbyn has successfully started chipping away at the Tories’ lead.
Via @roger_scully LAB sees huge surge in latest YouGov Wales poll
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) 22 May 2017
A number of polls published in the space of 36 hours gave a clear sign that Labour is slowly gaining ground on Theresa May nationally.
According to a Survation poll, the Conservatives have fallen five points to a nine-point lead, while Labour have enjoyed a five-point boost.
A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times put the Tories on 44 per cent and Labour on 35 per cent — the highest showing for Labour in the polls since the Brexit vote last year.
Three other polls published in the Sunday papers put Labour between 35 per cent and 33 per cent, up from 26 points at the start of the campaign.
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) May 22, 2017
A separate poll found that Labour is winning the social media war. Online campaign messages have been seen by 44 per cent of all voters according to the Survation poll for Good Morning Britain, with the Conservatives four points behind on 40.
And on Monday, an additional poll by ICM for the Guardian put the Tories on 47% and Labour on 33% – six points closer than the previous week.
Guardian/ICM poll today shows Tory lead narrowing to 14 points after battle of manifestos. Electoral Calculus est Con maj 134 on these figs. pic.twitter.com/tb9iATeWit
— Alan Travis (@alantravis40) May 22, 2017
The polls came after after both parties published their manifestos in full.
Under a Tory government, Theresa May initially vowed that more pensioners will have to pay for care at home and only £100,000 of a pensioner’s wealth will be protected from care costs.
The policy, which has been dubbed a “dementia tax” by opponents, is polling badly among traditional support groups for the Conservatives and has been privately criticised by Tory MPs.
— Dan Bloom (@danbloom1) May 22, 2017
And as outrage swelled, Mrs May announced on Monday that a Tory Government would, in fact, consult on a possible cap on social care costs.
It amounts to a significant concession after the Tory manifesto said proposals from the Dilnot Report on social care, which included a ceiling on the total amount any individual would have to pay, “mostly benefited a small number of wealthier people”.
Speaking in Wrexham, Mrs May accused Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn of resorting to “fake claims, fear and scaremongering” over the impact of her plans.
She said: “This manifesto says that we will come forward with a consultation paper, a government green paper.
“And that consultation will include an absolute limit on the amount people have to pay for their care costs.”
Labour has instead attempted to woo older voters. Corbyn has said he would keep the triple lock, winter fuel payments and free bus passes and would halt planned rises in the retirement age beyond 66 if elected.
“Not satisfied with plunging our social care system into crisis, Theresa May’s nasty party has promised more attacks on older people,” he said at a rally.
“Theresa May and the Conservatives won’t stand up for pensioners, their only concern is their billionaire friends.”