Astronomers closely monitoring asteroid which has small chance of hitting Earth
The European Space Agency (ESA) has revealed it is closely monitoring an asteroid that could hit the Earth in 2032. The recently discovered asteroid is estimated to be between 40m and 100m wide.
Asteroids, sometimes called minor planets, are rocky, airless remnants left over from the early formation of our solar system about 4.6 billion years ago. Most asteroids can be found orbiting the Sun between Mars and Jupiter within the main asteroid belt.
The asteroid which is called 2024 YR4, was discovered on December 27 2024 at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Shortly after its discovery, automated asteroid warning systems determined the object had a very small chance of potentially impacting Earth on 22 December 2032.
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According to the ESA, an asteroid of this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is at the top of the ESA's asteroid risk list and this month, astronomers have been working hard to monitor it including follow-up observations from telescopes across the world and using data to improve understanding of the size and trajectory of the celestial object.
As of yesterday, January 29, the probability of the rock hitting Earth is 1.2%. This result is consistent with independent estimates made by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. The ESA issue the reminder: "It is important to remember that an asteroid’s impact probability often rises at first before quickly dropping to zero after additional observations."
The asteroid’s orbit around the Sun is elongated, which means it is currently moving away from Earth in almost a straight line. This makes it difficult to accurately determine its orbit by studying how its trajectory curves over time. As the view of the asteroid fades from view, the ESA will continues to use extremely powerful telescopes to gather as much data as possible.
However, the space agency state: "It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will fade from view before we are able to entirely rule out any chance of impact in 2032. In this case, the asteroid will likely remain on ESA’s risk list until it becomes observable again in 2028."