Rishi Sunak appears to have lost ground in the Tory leadership race but a reported ballot delivery delay over security concerns could give him more time to make an impression before votes are cast.
A YouGov poll puts Liz Truss well ahead of Mr Sunak in support from party members, with her lead increasing to 34 points.
It shows 60 per cent of the party members polled between July 29 and August 2 say they intend to vote for the Foreign Secretary, up from 49 per cent since the period July 20 to 21 when the rivals first made the cut for the final two.
Support for Mr Sunak, the former chancellor, has dropped from 31 per cent to 26 per cent according to YouGov, while the rest of the 1,043 Conservative party members polled say they are undecided or will not vote.
The Conservative Party has delayed sending out ballots on the advice of the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), part of GCHQ, the Telegraph reported.
The paper said it understands there was no specific threat from a hostile state and the concerns were instead raised over the vulnerability of the voting process.
Under the party’s original system members would be able to vote but change their decision while the ballot remained open, but now a unique code will be provided which will only allow one, unchangeable, vote, according to the Telegraph.
North West Durham MP Richard Holden, who is supporting Mr Sunak, told BBC Newsnight: “I’ve heard they’re delayed. I think there’s some minor security issue which has been dealt with, but it won’t delay the result of the poll which is a crucial thing for everybody.”
The ballots had been due to be sent out from Monday, but could now arrive as late as Thursday August 11, according to the Telegraph.
NEW Conservative members leadership poll (29 Jul - 2 Aug)
Truss: 69% (+7 from 20-21 Jul)
Sunak: 31% (-7)
Truss: 60% (+11)
Sunak: 26% (-5)
Don't know/won't vote: 13% (-8)https://t.co/wGmRqtYJgX pic.twitter.com/51YpXQCzCF
— YouGov (@YouGov) August 2, 2022
In a further blow to Mr Sunak, YouGov data also showed 83 per cent of those who currently say they intend to vote for Ms Truss also say they have made up their mind.
Just 17 per cent say they might still change their mind while 29 per cent of Mr Sunak’s supporters say they might still vote differently.
But the Sunak campaign will be hoping the additional time to make their case before the first votes are cast will fall in their favour.
The Truss campaign spent Tuesday performing damage control after abandoning a flagship policy to slash £8.8 billion from public sector pay outside London.
The announcement on Monday night met fierce opposition from senior Conservatives who said that it would be “levelling down” the nation by leaving nurses, police officers and teachers worse off.
Conservative Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen, who is backing Mr Sunak, said the proposed pay policy had left him “speechless”, and suggested it would have cost the party the next general election if implemented.
Mr Houchen told BBC Radio 4’s World At One programme that the “horrifically bad” policy “could be Liz’s dementia tax moment”, in a comparison to Theresa May’s scrapped policy that was blamed for her poor electoral performance in 2017.
Mr Sunak’s camp argued that the move was no mistake, saying Ms Truss had called for the move when she was chief secretary to the Treasury in 2018.
“The lady is for turning,” a source said, mocking the Cabinet minister over comparisons she receives with former Conservative prime minister Margaret Thatcher.
But Ms Truss insisted her policy had been “misrepresented”.
Speaking to the BBC in Dorset, she said: “I’m afraid that my policy on this has been misrepresented. I never had any intention of changing the terms and conditions of teachers and nurses.
“But what I want to be clear about is I will not be going ahead with the regional pay boards, that is no longer my policy.”
Former chief whip Mark Harper told Ms Truss to stop “blaming journalists – reporting what a press release says isn’t ‘wilful misrepresentation’”.
“So this U-turn has wiped out £8.8 billion in savings. Where are these going to come from now?” the Tory MP for the Forest of Dean said.
“An economic policy that can’t be paid for isn’t very Conservative. Mrs Thatcher would be livid.”
But after a mixed day, Ms Truss did receive a campaign boost with backing from the Daily Mail.
A Liz Truss campaign source said on the YouGov polling: “Members are making up their mind, and they are supporting Liz.
“Her bold and ambitious plan for the country and economy is uniting Conservatives right across our nation. But we are certainly not complacent, Liz is fighting for every vote, meeting as many members as possible.”
An NCSC spokesperson said: “Defending UK democratic and electoral processes is a priority for the NCSC and we work closely with all parliamentary political parties, local authorities and MPs to provide cyber security guidance and support.
“As you would expect from the UK’s national cyber security authority we provided advice to the Conservative Party on security considerations for online leadership voting.”