BBC Weather issues verdict over 'wall of snow' hammering UK before end of November

The BBC has issued a fresh update over reports an Arctic blast and "wall" of snow could sweep the country before the end of the month. Meteorologists from the broadcaster have had their say in a lengthy written piece on Monday (November 11).

Simon King, from the BBC, said: "You might have seen headlines recently about an "Arctic blast" with lots of snow heading our way. But how likely are we to get snow soon? It is true that some forecast model data is showing a much colder spell with snow but a few headlines are misleading on what exactly is likely to happen."

Colder weather IS on the way, Mr King said, adding how while the air will be cold enough for precipitation to fall as sleet or snow for some parts of the UK, where and how much may fall will only really be known over the coming days.

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Mr King said: "In this weather set-up, one can assume we will have wintry showers coming in across Scotland and northern England with snow over mountains and maybe some sleet to lower levels. So, in weather terms, nothing unusual for the end of November.

The BBC will use a variety of different weather forecast data from the European Centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK Met Office and the American Global Forecast System. The Met Office, like the BBC, remains unconvinced over snowfall too.

The Met Office said: "The Met Office uses ensemble forecasts to quantify uncertainties in weather prediction and estimate risks of particular events occurring. This means that rather than relying on one single model run, which takes a picture of the current atmosphere and attempts to model it into the future, the simulation is run hundreds of times from slightly different starting conditions."

Ir adds: "While forecast accuracy is improving, there’s always an element of uncertainty when forecasts talk at longer ranges. What isn’t always captured in the headlines is this uncertainty, and why that exists in the forecast. In Met Office forecasts, we try to explain the levels of uncertainty and reasons for it in our in-depth output. This is particularly useful for those who like to look at a forecast at a slightly longer range."