Belarus goes to the polls with longtime leader Lukashenko feeling the heat

Belarusians will go to the polls on Sunday in one of the most unpredictable elections in a generation, as longtime leader Alexander Lukashenko faces a spirited challenge from a united opposition that has gathered the largest political rallies since the days of the Soviet Union.

Lukashenko, who has consolidated immense power over 25 years of rule in Belarus, is expected to claim victory over the opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. But signs of vote rigging and growing dissatisfaction with his government, including among his base, may trigger protests in their wake and further embolden the opposition.

In a twist, the government claimed on Friday that nearly a quarter of Belarusians had already been to the polls. Belarus’s elections commission said 22.5% of eligible voters, more than 1.5 million Belarusians, had already cast ballots in early voting, a significant increase on previous elections that critics said indicated ballot-stuffing.

“There is reason to believe that at least dozens of sites across the country, the data from official protocols are not even close to true,” reported the vote-monitoring NGO Honest People, adding that turnout was inflated by more than 50% at a number of polling stations.

Tikhanovskaya, a reluctant candidate who has promised to hold new, free elections if she wins, has called on supporters to fight vote-rigging at the polls, but has stopped short of calling for open protests.

“We’re not calling people to a Maidan,” she told Belarusian news site Tut.by in an interview published on Friday, referring to the 2014 revolution in Ukraine. “We want honest elections. Is that a crime?”

The vote comes amid marked dissatisfaction with Lukashenko’s government over the economy, his dismissive response to the coronavirus epidemic, and plans for economic integration with Russia.

Critics have panned Lukashenko as “Sasha 3%”, a reference to an underground poll that said his popularity was far less than the official polling numbers released by the government.

Under pressure, Lukashenko has jailed or blocked other opposition candidates and warned of provocations from his closest ally, Russia.

Last week, Lukashenko accused Russia of sending 33 Wagner mercenaries – a private military group that has carried out missions in Ukraine and Syria – to destabilise the country through terrorist attacks. He later claimed they sought to perpetrate a “massacre” by organising terrorist attacks in downtown Minsk.

The opposition has held some of the country’s largest political rallies since 1991, attracting thousands in small towns usually dominated by Lukashenko and a crowd of more than 63,000 at a recent protest in Minsk.

In the days before the elections, the opposition and government are battling over public spaces, with opposition rallies being squeezed out in favour of pro-government concerts.

Two DJs, Kirill Galanov and Vlad Sokolovsky, were arrested on Thursday for playing the Viktor Tsoi track Peremen (changes, in an act of defiance at a pro-government concert crashed by the opposition. The song has been a protest anthem since it was first released during perestroika. The two men were sentenced on Friday to 10 days in jail for hooliganism.

“This whole concert was hooliganism and I accept my guilt for participating in it,” said Galanov, one of the DJs who played the music, during a court appearance.

International musicians have also begun cancelling appearances scheduled for the night before the elections, citing the political situation in the country.

The California-based rapper Tyga explicitly referred to the elections in an announcement over Twitter, as well as the rapper Saint Jhn and Russian headliner Leonid Agutin.

“My performance was not politically motivated and to avoid any conflict with the Belarus elections,” tweeted Tyga. “I will not be performing on August 8th in Minsk. I hope to be back to play for my fans there at a future date.”