Betting markets predict a 90 seat Conservative majority in snap June election

Thomas Colson
Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May's walks off stage after speaking at the annual Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham, Britain, October 2, 2016.

Reuters / Toby Melville

LONDON — The Conservatives are set to gain 40 seats in June's snap general election to secure a majority of 90, according to betting market data.

IG Group, which is an online trading platform, has created a general election seats market which allows traders buy and sell the total amount of seats each party could win.

Based on current prices, this is how many seats each party is set to win:

Conservatives – 370 seats (a gain of 40 seats)
Labour – 177 seats (a loss of 52 seats)
Liberal Democrats – 34 seats (a gain of 25 seats)
Scottish National Party – 50 seats (a loss of 4 seats)
UKIP – 1 seat (gain of 1 seat)



According to those predictions, the Conservatives are on course to gain the strong mandate that May seeks in order to push her Brexit agenda through parliament. The other big projected winners are the Liberal Democrats, who are expected to win over four times as many seats as they did in 2015. The SNP are predicted to fall back slightly by four seats.

Matt Brief, head of dealing at IG, said: "This seven week campaign is set to be unlike any other previous election. There are big question marks over the turnout, which way Leave and Remain voters will cast their ballots, and what happens to the 12.6% UKIP vote in 2015."

Aggregate polling data published by the Times on Wednesday put Conservative support on 43%, Labour on 24%, the Liberal Democrats on 11% and UKIP on 10%. That would give the Conservatives 382 seats, Labour 179, the Lib Dems 10, the SNP 56, and others 23.

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