Boris Johnson’s bid for Tory leadership gathers momentum

Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign was gathering steam on Thursday, amid deep concern among centrist Conservatives that a Brexit hardliner is on the brink of becoming prime minister.

The former foreign secretary gained two significant endorsements – Johnny Mercer, who had been considered a leadership hopeful himself, and Gavin Williamson, the former defence secretary – with more poised to make themselves known in the coming days.

Johnson has the public backing of at least 10 MPs including Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the European Research Group, Zac Goldsmith, the former London mayoral candidate, and John Whittingdale, the former culture secretary.

Williamson, a former chief whip, told his local paper, the Express and Star: “He’s the one who can deliver change for both the Conservative party and the country.

“I will be enthusiastically backing him and very much hope I can play a small role in making sure that his name is the one that the party chooses as leader. The bottom line is that the only person who can deliver Brexit and defeat Labour is Boris Johnson.”

Related: Boris Johnson lied during EU referendum campaign, court told

Johnson, an architect of the Vote Leave campaign, is the firm favourite to take over as Conservative leader if he wins enough support among MPs to make it on to the final list of two candidates to be put to the party membership. To guarantee a place on the final ballot, candidates need at least 105 Conservative MPs behind them.

A “Stop Boris” movement has been under way among some centrist anti-Brexit MPs, from members of the cabinet to backbenchers, but there is a growing sense among them that it may be impossible to keep him off the ballot.

“My worry is that colleagues will think he has the best chance of saving their seat at the next election – wrongly, in my view,” said one anti-Johnson MP.

Another said there was growing concern among One Nation Tories that Johnson was likely to be leader, comparing their position to that of Labour MPs on the right of the party under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.

Related: Andrea Leadsom quits over Theresa May's Brexit bill

Johnson’s chances and those of other Brexiters – Dominic Raab, Penny Mordaunt and Andrea Leadsom – are also likely to be boosted by the fact a Brexit deal remains unresolved, allowing them to resurrect arguments for a renegotiation and, if that cannot be achieved, a so-called “managed no-deal”.

One supporter of a pro-Brexit leadership candidate said most of the cabinet hopefuls – Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, Matt Hancock and Michael Gove – were “in a real bind” because they had backed Theresa May’s doomed withdrawal agreement up until the very last moment and would have to ditch their support for it in any leadership contest.

“These cabinet ministers are all going to have to come and say they will have one last shot at renegotiation and then they are open to no deal after all. But they have all been going round saying how terrible no deal is so it is going to look completely disingenuous,” he said.

Related: Tory leadership: the runners and riders

“Anyone who doesn’t put no deal back on the table is going to have no chance with the members. But they have backed the PM’s deal all the way through and they can’t just blame her for it now without it looking really bad.”

With Johnson gaining momentum, some moderate Conservatives are even considering their place in the party. One told the Guardian that some MPs are thinking of leaving if a hardline Brexit supporter is picked as the prime minister, meaning there could be no majority to govern even with the support of the Democratic Unionist party.

“I wish the Conservative party’s problems were as easy as changing the leader,” said one centrist Tory MP. “The Brexit party is eating our core vote … after three years of not delivering on Brexit it’s hard to credibly beat them now.

Michael Gove

The fortunes of the environment secretary remain hard to predict and opinion is split in the party. His detractors believe he is deeply unpopular with the country and has ruined his reputation for good when he stood against Johnson at the last leadership race. Most MPs were delighted by his performance in the no-confidence vote where he tore into Corbyn. But robust Brexiters dislike the fact he has stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime.

Matt Hancock

While the response of many voters to mention of the health secretary is still likely to be ‘Who?’, to some he is starting to have the makings of a from-the-sidelines contender. The former culture secretary is only 40 but has six years of frontbench experience, and is on to his second cabinet post. The longer the race goes on the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being.

Jeremy Hunt

The nickname ‘Theresa in trousers’ has stuck. Most colleagues speak about his candidacy unenthusiastically and warn about his reputation with the country after having weathered the junior doctors’ strike. He could still succeed by bridging the Brexit-remain divide and attracting colleagues looking for a moderate grown-up, but  recently he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters.

Sajid Javid

The home secretary is reported to have told Tory MPs he is the only one who can beat Jeremy Corbyn in a general election, but has made less of an impact than first predicted. Several MPs believe that the case of Isis bride Shamima Begum was mishandled and find Javid’s speeches and vision less than inspiring.

Boris Johnson

Still favourite for the top job, Johnson has kept himself out of the messiest Tory warfare in 2019 and has enthusiastic support from younger Brexiter MPs – and the patronage of Jacob Rees-Mogg. His supporters insist no other name on the list can connect with voters in the same way and win a general election. However, his reputation is still severely damaged from his time as foreign secretary and there is a concerted ‘anyone but Boris’ campaign among party colleagues.

Andrea Leadsom

Leadsom has revived her reputation somewhat during her tenure as Commons leader, especially her rounds in the ring with the Speaker, John Bercow. However, few believe she would ever be first choice again among Eurosceptics and a number of her former campaign team have said they will discourage her from running. It is yet to be seen how her resignation on the eve of the European Elections will play with MPs.

Esther McVey

Former cabinet minister McVey has already announced her intention to run. She has the Brexit credentials, having quit as Work and Pensions Secretary in protest at Theresa May's withdrawal agreement, and claims to already have enough support from fellow MPs to make her bid viable.

Penny Mordaunt

Previously seen as a definite outsider, her promotion from international development secretary to defence after the sacking of Gavin Williamson has significantly bolstered her position. As both a confirmed Brexiter and a social liberal she could unite different camps, but she remains relatively untested.

Dominic Raab

The former Brexit secretary has a loyal fanbase and a professional team, including support from Vote Leave’s ex-comms director Paul Stephenson. MPs are forming the view that the next party leader should be a younger face from a new generation of politicians – which gives Raab the edge over Boris Johnson. 

Amber Rudd

While she has not officially ruled herself out, Rudd’s remainer tendencies and slender majority in her Hastings constituency mean the work and pensions secretary is largely being courted for who she might eventually endorse.

Liz Truss

As much for effort as inspiration. The chief secretary to the Treasury has been almost everywhere the last few weeks – including modelling some slightly alarming trousers in the Mail on Sunday – to explain her free market, libertarian philosophy. Everyone knows what she thinks, but this will still perhaps not be enough.

And those not in the running

Among the senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, the party chairman, Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, who acknowledges that he is not popular enough. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around.

“I think the party has got to think very carefully about thinking all its problems can be solved by out-Brexiting the Brexit party, which comes at a price of alienating a huge swath of Britain that doesn’t want hard Brexit and is almost certainly the majority.”

Dominic Grieve, a pro-EU Conservative MP, hinted he could quit the party in the event of a no-deal Brexit on Wednesday, telling ITV’s Robert Peston: “I’ve always said that I think taking the UK out of the EU without a deal would be catastrophic and I would do everything in my power to prevent it.

“Because the question is ‘what do I have to do to stop it?’ I would have to do everything I can.”