When will Boris Johnson make a statement about coronavirus and potential new lockdown measures?

Coronavirus cases in the UK are rising sharply, with ministers and advisers concerned that new measures need to be brought in to curb the spread.

Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance and chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty warned that the UK could see almost 50,000 people infected with the virus each day by mid-October if cases continue to rise at the current rate.

Their address to the nation is expected to lay the groundwork for a speech by Boris Johnson announcing new coronavirus restrictions after an emergency Cobra meeting on Tuesday.

Here we look at when the Prime Minister will make his speech and what he is expected to discuss.

What is the risk from coronavirus now?

Sir Patrick and Prof Whitty – the two top Government advisers on coronavirus – offered a stark image of the situation facing the UK on Monday.

With cases already rising fast, they explained that unless Brits stick to social distancing rules, we will continue to see an exponential rise in cases.

Infections are thought to be doubling every seven days, according to Sir Patrick. If they continue to do so, we could see 49,000 cases recorded each day by mid-October, he added – along with 200 daily deaths.

The UK appears to be following a similar trajectory to Spain and France, both of which are also seeing an alarming spike in coronavirus infections and hospitalisations.

The Government has already limited social interactions to six people – and brought in regulation meaning people found to flout the "rule of six" could be slapped with fines of up to £10,000.

But with the test, track and trace system floundering – mostly in the hands of giant private companies, cases still rising and winter on the way, there are fears that some form of second national lockdown could be in the works – with all the economic, social and health-related pain that could cause.

When will Boris Johnson speak?

Mr Johnson is expected to chair a COBRA national emergency meeting on Tuesday, as well as a meeting of the Cabinet.

He will also update MPs on the coronavirus situation and is expected to announce further restrictions in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus.

Will there be a second lockdown?

It is unlikely that the Prime Minister will announce a second lockdown tomorrow like the measures brought in suddenly in late March.

Ministers are said to be desperate to avoid another round of such tough and costly measures, for now at least.

Watch: What is a local lockdown?

Professor Carl Heneghan, head of Oxford University’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, said the autumn could be too early for another lockdown.

"If you’re looking at a break and when we need it, we need it in the mid-winter when we might run into problem," he added.

But Health Secretary Matt Hancock explicitly refused to rule out a second lockdown on Sunday, telling the BBC's Andrew Marr that the UK is at a "tipping point" in its fight with the virus, and urging people to stick to the rules.

What other measures could we see?

It seems likely that schools and workplaces such as offices will remain open for now, but other venues could see restrictions.

More than 13 million people in the north of England are already under a 10pm curfew for visiting pubs and restaurants.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan is meeting with city borough chiefs on Monday night to discuss measures to curb the spread, including possible pub closures.

Any national restrictions on pubs and restaurants could be brought in indefinitely, or they could be done as a two-week "circuit-breaker".

These time-limited restrictions would – in theory – slow the spread of the virus dramatically for those two weeks, preventing test and trace systems from being overwhelmed, as they currently are.

Finding a balance

But ministers have to balance the public health situation with the possible effect of tough new rules on the economy, as Sir Patrick and Prof Whitty noted on Monday.

Any further restrictions on business could have a disastrous impact on people's livelihoods, just as Government support measures come to an end.

Pub bosses like Wetherspoons' Tim Martin have warned that further closures could see hospitality businesses close for good, after being ordered shut for months in spring and early summer.

It comes as the furlough scheme continues to wind down in September and October before ending completely at the end of that month – with Chancellor Rishi Sunak yet to announce an extension.

Meanwhile the eviction ban has also come to an end, with about 230,000 people believed to be behind on rent payments – a situation that would almost certainly be exacerbated by the rise in unemployment that the end of furlough could bring.

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