How will Brexit affect Scotland and Northern Ireland?

Britain's exit from the European Union is expected to have far-reaching consequences for the United Kingdom.

Here we look at Scotland and Northern Ireland and ask how likely it is that Brexit will lead to a breakup of the UK.

First, let's start with a look at Scotland.

Did Northern Ireland want Britain to leave the EU?

Northern Ireland polled more europhilic than other other region in the UK before the election. Its Remain vote of 55.7 per cent was the third strongest in the country. Nationalists wanted the UK to remain in the EU, but unionists generally wanted to leave.

Who wanted to stay and who wants to leave?

Sinn Féin, the SDLP, the Ulster Unionists, Alliance and the Green Party wanted to stay. The Irish government also wanted a remain vote. The DUP, the TUV and the left-wing People Before Profit party backed Brexit.

What about the Irish border?

Remain campaigners warned that a Brexit would lead to the re-establishing of a harder border along the 310-mile frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic in order to collect customs tariffs and stop EU nationals who would no longer enjoy the right to move freely to the UK from using the North as a backdoor immigration route.

Leave campaigners contend that, in practice, given there has been a free travel areas between the UK and Ireland since 1923 and that the Republic of Ireland is a not a member of the Schengen free movement area, this will not now happen.

Instead, a workable arrangement will be reached, although the precise arrangement would depend on what kind of deal the UK struck with the EU.

If the UK moves outside the EU common trade area, it is possible customs spot-checks will be needed, as happens between Sweden and Norway.

How will Brexit impact Northern Ireland?

Remain campaigners warned in the run up to the referendum that the introduction of a harder border would once again put North-South relations under strain, endangering both the Peace Process and the economic dividends of peace.

They also warned that a Brexit vote is likely, sooner or later, to trigger another Scottish independence referendum which – if Scotland voted to leave the Union – would destabilise the UK constitutional settlement, with potential knock-on effects for Northern Ireland.

Leave campaigners say that such concerns are wildly overblown, since Westminster must grant permission for another Scottish referendum which, they further argued, the Scottish National Party would be reluctant to demand for risk of losing again.

In practice, they say, the risks have been wildly exaggerated.

On some models Brexit is expected to have a disproportionate impact on Northern Ireland’s economy which is reliant on exports to the EU, including in the food and agriculture sectors which would be hit hardest if the UK ends up paying EU tariffs.

Some economists have also warned of a drop-off in foreign direct investment, off-setting the benefits of Northern Ireland’s lower corporation tax rates.

Ultimately, the actual impacts would depend on the kind of trading relationship that the UK negotiates with the EU post Brexit.

Brexit will also end the EURO3.5bn in farm subsidies and structural grants received by Northern Ireland in the 2014-2020 period.

Although the UK is a net contributor to CAP and the EU, it is not clear in a post-Brexit environment what settlement Northern Ireland would receive from Westminster when it disbursed monies that it no longer contributed to the EU.

Read more about whether Brexit would trigger a break-up of the UK here.