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Brexit betting: Odds lengthen on UK leaving EU by March deadline following humiliating Commons vote

The Brexit betting has shifted following Tuesday night’s historic Commons vote (Picture: PA)
The Brexit betting has shifted following Tuesday night’s historic Commons vote (Picture: PA)

The odds of Brexit happening by the end of March have lengthened considerably following Theresa May’s humiliating defeat in Parliament.

The prime minister’s EU Withdrawal Agreement was rejected by a record margin of 230 votes, as MPs left her Brexit strategy in tatters.

Bookmakers were quick to revise their odds of the UK leaving the EU by the agreed timeline of March 29 in the wake of the Commons defeat.

However, Mrs May’s job appears safe for now, with almost all of the betting pointing to her surviving a vote of no confidence in her government in Parliament on Wednesday evening, called by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Theresa May is battling the odds to remain prime minister (Picture: PA)
Theresa May is battling the odds to remain prime minister (Picture: PA)

Betfair has odds of 1/5 that a deal will not be in place by the Brexit deadline, and 2/9 that the UK won’t leave by March 29.

It has odds of 9/4 that Mrs May will no longer be in her job by March, and 7/2 that Mr Corbyn will be the next prime minister.

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Betfair’s odds of there being a General Election in 2019 are 6/4, and there is a price of 13/8 on there being a second Brexit referendum.

But the odds on the government losing Wednesday might’s vote of no confidence are quite long at 4/1.

Betfair’s Katie Baylis said: “Last night’s unprecedented defeat has thrown up more questions than answers, and first on the agenda will be Corbyn’s Vote of no confidence.

“The government is 4/1 to lose that vote (1/7 to win) with just enough support to get them through you would think, however the odds of a General Election are still short at 6/4 with Corbyn the 7/2 favourite to be next PM.

“If the government and Theresa May can withstand the storm then some sort of a deal still needs to be passed to avoid a no-deal Brexit, and it’s odds-on at 1/5 that there won’t be a deal come the March 29 deadline.

“It’s similar odds at 2/9 that the UK won’t leave by that deadline, with a second referendum currently at 13/8. With so many possible outcomes, issues and controversies ahead, we are expecting a huge amount of movement across all UK political markets, in what is almost without doubt the most tumultuous period in British political history.”

Bookmakers William Hill says the government is 1/33 (a 97% chance) to win tonight’s vote of no confidence, but the price of Article 50 being extended has shortened considerably from 4/9 to 3/10 (a 77% chance).

Bookmakers say Jeremy Corbyn has a good chance of being the next prime minister (Picture: PA)
Bookmakers say Jeremy Corbyn has a good chance of being the next prime minister (Picture: PA)

The odds on Amber Rudd becoming the next prime minister have also shortened, from 20/1 to 14/1.

William Hill spokesman Rupert Adams said: “It appears that Mrs May will win the confidence vote, which means we start again tomorrow and the odds suggest that Mrs May’s priority will be getting an extension to Article 50.”

William Hill offers odds of 1/6 that a withdrawal agreement will not be approved by the end of March.

It says the odds on Mrs May leaving office in 2019 are 2/7. Mr Corbyn is 4/1 to be the next prime minister.

William Hill said the odds on a second referendum being called by the end of 2020 are 11/8.

The odds of the UK remaining in the EU following a decision made in a second referendum before the end of this year are 7/2.