Advertisement

Brexit Bulletin: Bordering on progress

Two men dressed as customs officers take part in a protest outside Stormont against Brexit and its possible effect on the north and south Irish border on March 29, 2017 in Belfast - Getty Images
Two men dressed as customs officers take part in a protest outside Stormont against Brexit and its possible effect on the north and south Irish border on March 29, 2017 in Belfast - Getty Images

Good afternoon.

Negotiators have a busy weekend ahead as they work to resolve their differences to enough of a degree so that their political masters, Michel Barnier and David Davis, have something to celebrate when they stand side by side on Monday.

The Irish border question remains one of the sticking points. The FT thinks that it is the “biggest remaining obstacle” to the terms of Britain’s transition being swiftly agreed next week, however the Evening Standard suggests that both sides will actually kick the question down the road in order to clear the way for a transition deal. “There will not be a breakthrough now on Ireland,” one EU official told the paper, indicating that the deadline to resolve it has now shifted to the next European summit in June.

That doesn’t mean the Irish have been squared for the time being. European officials want the British to make clear that they will treat the deal done in December, which featured the now contentious ‘backstop’ option of aligning Northern Ireland to the Dublin’s standards, as the basis for an eventual solution to the border issue. The trouble is both sides don't agree on what they had agreed to. The Brexit Secretary initially called it a "statement of intent", which prompted his European counterparts to demand that it be made legally binding as soon as possible.  

Theresa May went some way towards reassuring them that the British understood the need for a "backstop" on Wednesday, telling MPs at Prime Minister’s Questions that the current text proposed by Brussels was “unacceptable” in its current form, but her officials “stand ready to work with the Commission and the Irish Government to ensure that all the commitments on Northern Ireland made in the joint report are included in the withdrawal agreement”.

Will that be enough to clear the way? If Mr Davis is spotted boarding the Eurostar on Sunday night, that'll be a good sign.

Assuming this weekend goes well, Monday should mark a major negotiating milestone as European leaders prepare to move talks onto the question of their future trading relationship with Brexit Britain.

But that doesn’t mean the Irish border question will have gone away. The EU’s first draft of the Brexit treaty, favouring the ‘backstop’ above all else, was one that “no UK prime minister could ever agree” according to Theresa May. Michel Barnier might feel that having the UK join a customs union would be a “significant part of the solution”, but Mrs May has repeatedly made clear she sees that as tantamount to a “betrayal” of Brexit voters. The Prime Minister has her faith in solving it through the terms of any eventual free trade arrangement and/or technology, but her European counterparts are fiercely sceptical of the potential for technology to provide the answer.

Further compromise will be needed if both sides are to agree on a satisfactory solution later on.

Brexit Bulletin promotion - end of article
Brexit Bulletin promotion - end of article