Brexit Bulletin: Fishing for a deal

Good afternoon.

Jacob Rees-Mogg said this morning that he thought the recently unveiled transition deal was “acceptable” provided that “we have really left” at the end of the period. He described such an outcome in theological terms as entering “purgatory before getting into heaven”. His seeming sanguinity doesn’t mean Brexiteers are settling down quietly for the 21 month limbo agreed. In fact, Mr Rees-Mogg is kicking off a protest tomorrow which will culminate in Tory MPs flinging fish from a boat just outside Parliament on the Thames, just before Theresa May stands up at the despatch box for PMQs.

The Prime Minister can get a sense of what to expect by catching up on Michael Gove’s performance today in the Commons, when he faced criticism from the SNP, Liberal Democrats, fellow Brexiteers and Tory MPs. The Environent Secreatry tried to disarm his critics by making clear he shared their “disappointment”, but urged his fellow Leavers to keep their “eyes on the prize” - i..e taking back control fully in 2021.

It’s easy to forget amid vociferous reaction among fishing representatives, and their allies in the Commons, that many seem to share Mr Rees-Mogg’s preparedness to accept the terms of transition as long as what comes after is worth it. Bertie Armstrong, head of the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation, said that it was the “red line that must not be crossed”. Mrs May should be able to reassure her critics if she can ensure that transition is a stairway to Brexiteer heaven.

“We have reached agreement on the transition”, Michel Barnier boasted yesterday. However, the deal seems to have hit a snag, as Donald Tusk has revealed today in his letter to the EU27 (whose leaders are meant to formally approve it later this week) that he needs a “couple more hours” to square it with “ some of the most concerned Member States”.

The European Council leader’s suggestion this afternoon has raised doubts about how smoothly talks might move onto trade and the UK-EU’s future relationship this week, as officials privately hope that he will be able to formallyencourage European leaders to do so tomorrow. If ministers thought what they had agreed on fishing rights during transition, despite the domestic controversy, would guarantee them swift progress, they stand mistaken.

Could these concerns be deal-wrecking? Ireland’s prime minister has lauded the “steady progress” in negotiations today, but warned that “more needs to be done in the coming weeks and months”. Spain, the Guardian finds, is seeking reassurances that it would still have a veto over whether the Brexit deal covers Gibraltar. Such issues are unlikely to scupper the transition, but they may well encourage EU leaders to tighten the thumbscrews further before they move talks on.

Given how tricky it has been for negotiators to get this far, they will find it hard to resist congratulating themselves once the transition is approved this week. But their journey is not over yet, as the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reminded them by saying that “the end of the road is often the most difficult”. They still have many months to go until they reach the end.