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Brexit Bulletin: One step forward

David Davis and EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier address a press conference after their meeting at the European Commission in Brussels on March 19, 2018 - AFP
David Davis and EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier address a press conference after their meeting at the European Commission in Brussels on March 19, 2018 - AFP

Good afternoon.

David Davis and Michel Barnier used to disagree on so much that they would describe the latest round of negotiation in vastly different ways (e.g. “concrete” progress vs “no real progress”). But today, they both agreed that “a decisive step” had been taken by negotiators in hammering out the terms of Britain’s transition out of the European Union.

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator showed off how much had been agreed between both sides by issuing a colour-coded draft of the Withdrawal Agreement (green meant agreed, yellow work in progress and uncoloured no agreement whatsoever). About 75% of the 129 pages were green.

Theresa May has had to make a few more concessions to make progress, such as allowing free movement to effectively continue for the 21 month transition period, and maintaining the Common Fisheries Policy in that time by allowing for the UK to be no more than “consulted” by Brussels over fishing arrangements until the end of 2020. For that, the Brexit Secretary was able to boast that the UK will be able to “step out, sign and ratify new trade deals” during the transition.

But Monsieur Barnier reminded him that the UK will need to renegotiate over 700 treaties in that time. He will not be standing in the way of British negotiators, I point out online, so it paves the way for the UK Government to make good on its “Global Britain” vision.

There may be swathes of green across the draft Brexit deal, as Messrs Davis and Barnier congratulate each other on the progress and businesses agree a sigh of relief, but that doesn’t mean what has been agreed is uncontroversial.

Ruth Davidson has warned the Government that her Scottish MPs will oppose a final deal that fails to bring back control of fishing rights from Brussels, describing what had been agreed for the transition as an “undoubted disappointment”. Mr Davis insists that the UK will be negotiating over its waters as “an independent coastal state” in 2020, ahead of the end of its transition period, so he will have to deliver on that if he is to get the Scottish Conservative leader’s support for the whole Brexit package.

In the meantime, the Irish border question has been kicked down the road, with the British essentially gold-plating their commitment to the principle of there being a “backstop” solution to avoid a hard border. But as the clock ticks down, it’ll have to be answered in the end. Theresa May said that “no UK prime minister” could sign up to the EU’s opening offer, so it’ll have to change dramatically - assuming she doesn’t decide to humiliate herself by caving in - to be resolved.

Boris Johnson hailed the transition deal as a “ great step” in the talks this afternoon, suggesting that he thought “things are going extremely well”. The transition may have mark a milestone, but negotiators still have to thrash out what happens after that period.

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