Brexit Bulletin: Please Michel, can I have some more?

Good afternoon.

Theresa May is trying to shrug off last night’s embarrassment at the hands of pro-EU Tory rebels by getting on with the job in Brussels over the next two days. The Prime Minister insisted that she was "still on course to deliver Brexit" following her Government's first defeat over a proposed amendment to a key piece of Brexit legislation in the Commons yesterday. Despite Brexiteer fury (Nadine Dorries wants the rebellious 11 to be deselected), Tom Harris points out that the fundamentals remain the same: MPs have not stopped Brexit, nor have they changed the type of Brexit possible. Britain’s departure is “unstoppable”, Boris Johnson said today, a sentiment echoed by former French president Francois Hollande yesterday.

MPs have instead legislated for the right to have something the Government had already promised them: a vote on the final deal. The main consequence, as I’ve written, is that the Government will be impelled to finish its deal months before March 2019 in order to ensure Parliament can consider it. They won’t be able to rewrite the terms of the deal, instead being able to - like the rest of Europe’s parliaments - accept or veto what is on the table. They might aspire to reject the deal in the hope of sending David Davis back to the negotiating table to beg Michel Barnier for more concessions, but I suggest he would be likely to come back with little extra than gruel.

European leaders have begun to make this clear, with Luxembourg’s prime minister telling reporters on his way into this week’s summit that the prospect of a second attempt to negotiate would not be “good” for the current negotiations. “Westminster should trust that Theresa May will do the best for the UK,” Xavier Bettel went on. “Westminster shouldn't, even before we start negotiations to have in their heads that they don't trust the prime minister.” Rebels insist that they don't want to stop Brexit, but Monsieur Bettel did not share their view: "This makes it even shorter for Theresa May's Government to make proposals, because if after it she has to get an agreement in London that doesn’t help a lot". Just when Mrs May thought she had a handle on her European partners, she now has to keep her party together.

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