Brexit in chaos as Tory MPs trigger vote of no confidence in Theresa May

Conservative MPs have triggered a vote of no confidence in Theresa May, plunging the Brexit process into chaos as Tory colleagues indicated they no longer had faith in the prime minister to deliver the deal.

Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, has received at least 48 letters from Conservative MPs calling for a vote of no confidence in May. Under party rules, a contest is triggered if 15% of Conservative MPs write to the chair of the committee of Tory backbenchers.

A ballot will be held on Wednesday evening between 6pm and 8pm, Brady said, with votes counted “immediately afterwards and an announcement will be made as soon as possible”. Sources said an announcement could be made by 10pm.

If she is effectively sacked after the ballot, a contest could take up to six weeks to complete.

On Tuesday night, ministers warned that such a successful challenge would mean that article 50 might have to be suspended.

Why has a confidence vote happened?

A total of 48 Conservative MPs – representing 15% of the parliamentary party – have backed a confidence vote in Theresa May in an attempt to trigger a leadership contest.

When will the confidence vote take place?

Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tories, has confirmed the vote will take place on Wednesday evening between 6pm and 8pm in a House of Commons committee room. A result is expected shortly afterwards.

How many MPs would need to vote against May to oust her?

A simple majority is required – the figure is 158 MPs. However, it is widely believed that May would be under intense pressure to resign if the were a significant number of no-confidence votes, even if she wins.

The exact number is anybody’s guess but over 100 votes against the prime minister would be undeniably a bad result given that ministers will be expected to vote for her. Should May defeat her critics, they would not be permitted to challenge her for another year.

What happens if May loses?

She will have to tender her resignation as leader of the Conservative party, and ultimately as prime minister.

An open contest for the Conservative leadership would then follow, although May cannot take part. Tory MPs then whittle down the number of candidates over a matter of days to two – who face the party’s estimated 120,000 membership in a vote. After a three week ballot a new prime minister would be expected to take over in January.

A change of Conservative leader and prime minister would not automatically lead to a general election, although the Labour party could respond through a vote of no confidence.

Potential candidates to lead the Tories and become the new prime minister include the former foreign secretary Boris Johnson, the home secretary, Sajid Javid, the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, and the international development secretary, Penny Mordaunt.

Brady refused to say how many letters he had received. “I am only required to say the threshold was reached,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

He disclosed that he spoke to May on Tuesday night and said she was “businesslike” about the vote.

In a press release, Brady said: “The threshold of 15% of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the leader of the Conservative party has been exceeded.”

The prime minister will need the backing of at least 158 Tory MPs to see off the Brexiters’ challenge; her position would then be safe for 12 months. However, the prime minister could decide to resign if votes against her were below the threshold to topple her, but significant enough in number.

More than 20 other Tory backbenchers have publicly confirmed they have submitted letters calling for May to step down over her Brexit proposal, including Jacob Rees-Mogg, the influential chair of the European Research Group, the former Brexit minister Steve Baker and fellow leavers Nadine Dorries and Andrew Bridgen.

Brexiter MPs had hoped to oust the prime minister some weeks earlier after she presented her withdrawal agreement but progress then appeared to stall ahead of the meaningful vote. It was her decision to cancel that vote, in the face of huge defeat, that appeared to lead to a slew of new letters – though not all writers have gone public with theirs.

Not all the letters have been sparked by the draft withdrawal agreement or the delay to the vote. Several were prompted months earlier by the Chequers agreement that led to the departure of two cabinet ministers, and the disastrous Salzburg summit at which that was rejected.

James Duddridge announced he had submitted his letter during the Conservative party conference. Another MP, Simon Clarke, withdrew his letter before the summer but then resubmitted it.

Others who have submitted letters include the ERG deputy chair, Mark Francois, backbenchers Henry Smith, Andrea Jenkyns, Philip Davies, Sheryll Murray, Anne Marie Morris and the former culture secretary John Whittingdale.

Speaking on the Today Programme, the Brexiter Bernard Jenkin said he would vote to sack May because she “cannot command a majority” in the Commons, particularly without the support of the DUP.

“The reason Theresa will probably lose this ballot is that so many people in the parliamentary party cannot see how she can command a majority,” he said.

The former minister Owen Paterson, a member of the ERG group, said he had given Brady a letter of no confidence on Tuesday evening after wrestling with his conscience.

“I just felt that she was no longer the person to lead us through this … She should completely scrap [her] agreement,” he said.

The justice secretary David Gauke, warned that article 50 would have to be delayed, possibly for six months, if May is toppled on Wednesday.

“If she loses tonight, whoever is prime minister will have to delay article 50 … I think that some of my leave colleagues should bear that in mind when they vote this evening,” he said.

He told the Today programme that he was disappointed by the decision to hold a leadership contest, which he described as “an act of self-indulgence”.

“People look to the Conservative party to be the pragmatic grown-ups in the room. Theresa May is the right person to lead us. She has demonstrated her courage and integrity.”

Javid was among a number of ministers who expressed their dismay at the prospect of a contest and offered May his support. He wrote on Twitter: “The last thing our country needs right now is a Conservative party leadership election. Will be seen as self-indulgent and wrong. PM has my full support and is best person to ensure we leave EU on 29 March.”

Mordaunt also expressed her support for May: “She always has done what she believes is in the national interest,” she wrote.

Michael Gove, the environment secretary, Matt Hancock and Greg Clarke also expressed their support for May.