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Brexit has to all intents and purposes already happened – we’re being erased from the diplomatic map

Over the four weeks that have passed since Theresa May’s Florence charm offensive, the only noticeable advance on the Brexit front has been in the UK’s efforts to damp down expectations. Whatever transpires from this week’s EU summit, the word is that any breakthrough must wait at least until the next such gathering in December. London may be impatient to start talks on trade, but it has not yet offered enough to prise open that particular door.

The concerns of the EU-27 (as we must call them until we have really left, when they will become simply the EU) include money and the status of EU citizens wishing to remain in the UK. (I am deliberately leaving the Irish trade conundrum on one side). The money question is soluble; citizens’ rights perhaps less so, but not impossible.

It may be hard, as of now, to imagine why any EU citizen might choose to stay, given the political and public climate since the referendum. But it is clear that some do, and the Prime Minister tried to offer some reassurances in a pre-summit letter that made an effort to sound friendly and constructive.

To say those reassurances will not be enough is an understatement. The promise of simplified procedures is one thing; the big concern for many is that they retain the same rights after Brexit as they had before, including the freedom to move to and fro for themselves and members of their family. It would appear that some time limit on those rights may be negotiable; but if the gap is between perpetuity and the end of a transitional two years, that gap is very far from being bridged.

The status of those 4 million or so European citizens resident in the UK, and of the 1 million or so UK citizens resident in the EU-27 – whose fates are inevitably bound together –constitutes a particularly awkward question, because it turns on the human factor. In the overall context of the Brexit bargaining, however, it is a very small, and finite, part of the equation. Future relations, economic, political and in security, will form the bulk of any deal that may be reached.

But there is something else that will make up a possibly even bigger part of any settlement, and that is the mentality on either side. And here, it seems to me at least, that, with or without any breakthrough in negotiations, with or without an elaborate set of papers enshrining the divorce settlement, Brexit has to all intents and purposes already happened.

I am not talking about the UK side. It is fair to say that a section of the population – possibly as much as the 37 per cent that voted Leave in the referendum (accounting for 52 per cent of the vote) – never accepted that the UK was, or should be, part of the EU. I have in mind the perspective from the other side of the Channel.

The late summer into autumn is a favoured time for conferences in Europe, and such gatherings offer a glimpse, if only a glimpse, of opinion in the host country and further afield. But they also offer a gauge of mood changes from year to year. And the difference between this year and last is stark.

This time last year, as a British participant at international gatherings, I frequently found myself the centre of attention. I had to field a host of questions, reflecting, variously, disbelief, curiosity and sympathy. “Why on earth did you (Brits, collectively) do it?” “Will it really happen?” “How could it be reversed?” “That’s really terrible - for us, as much as for you.” “Is there anything we can do about it?”

This year, the prevailing response was quite different. Brexit was treated as a fact of life. The UK as a leading member and voice of the European Union was over.

It was not that British participants were cold-shouldered. Indeed, at the annual Yalta European Strategy forum that now (since Russia’s annexation of Crimea) takes place in Kiev, there was a larger official British contingent than I can remember, with both Foreign Office minister, Alan Duncan, and former prime minister, Tony Blair, pointing out the irony, that here they were encouraging Ukraine in its “European dream”, even as the UK was preparing to leave.

It was rather that the attention to the British and the questions about Brexit that had come thick and fast the previous year had given way to acceptance that the UK was going its separate way. Some rationalised it by arguing that the UK had always been less “European” in its outlook and loyalties than the countries of Continental Europe and that it was time to stop pretending otherwise.

Acceptance of the divorce, it is true, was less painful for the EU-27 than it might have been, because Brexit had not precipitated the disintegration many had foretold. On the contrary, it seemed to have galvanised the EU in a way, with polls showing its popularity among EU voters rising. Not only that, but elections had brought defeat to Eurosceptic parties, with Emmanuel Macron’s victory in France, in particular, seeming to give the whole European project a second wind. There was life for the EU after Brexit, it seemed – perhaps even a stronger and more harmonious life.

And it is hard to escape the impression – as yet still an impression – that with the EU-27’s acceptance of the UK’s departure has gone most of whatever influence the UK once wielded – influence not only inside the EU, but further afield.

In the wider Europe, there already seems a recognition that the UK has bowed out. Ukraine clearly understands that it must now look elsewhere for champions of its European ambitions. So, too, it appears, do the Central European EU members who received succour from the UK for their sovereignty arguments. Their worry now is about a two-speed Europe, in which they are relegated very much to the second tier.

Maybe it is premature to observe that the UK has been erased from the international diplomatic map. Maybe we are betwixt and between leaving our old club and finding that new global role. In the meantime, though, the truth should be dawning of how much the UK’s international status and purpose were enhanced by our place in the EU. From the outside, the world looks a lot lonelier.