The Brexit saga: what happens next?
Is Theresa May making any progress?
The prime minister has been holding a string of meetings with the Westminster leaders of the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish National party, and the Democratic Unionist party, as well some of her own hard-Brexit supporting backbenchers.
Those emerging have repeatedly described May as being in “listening mode”, but the reality is that Downing Street is offering very little that is new. On Thursday morning, a No 10 spokesman said May would stand by her Brexit principles, having set out “over the course of many months now what she believes the British people voted for”.
Against such a backdrop it is hard to escape the conclusion that the exercise is, for the moment, little more than a public relations exercise to try and make May seem reasonable and willing to listen.
Who else is involved in the discussions?
David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, and Michael Gove, the environment secretary, who has rapidly become an increasingly important figure in the Brexit crisis, have been holding separate meetings with senior backbenchers such as Labour’s Hilary Benn and Yvette Cooper in an attempt to see if there is any common ground. Their involvement allows May to concentrate on senior figures, and backbench Tories.
When does May have to update parliament on progress?
Downing Street has promised that the prime minister will make a statement to parliament on Monday, outlining what progress has been made and what further steps she intends to take to secure a Brexit deal.
This is to comply with Dominic Grieve’s amendment, which gave May three days to respond if her Brexit deal was voted down. In theory, only a written statement is required to comply with the amendment, but such is the seriousness of the situation that May will almost certainly come to the Commons in person.
When will the Commons vote again on Brexit?
Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the House of Commons, told MPs that a full day would be reserved on 29 January to debate Brexit. Downing Street will put down a motion, at this stage likely to be in neutral terms, but amendments to it will be allowed.
There are likely to be a string of amendments, and MPs are likely to have the chance to vote on whether to hold a second referendum for the first time, although that will fail unless it gets support from the Labour leadership.
An amendment ruling out no deal – which is almost certain to pass – is also likely to be put, although this would complicate May’s negotiating strategy, which has been to use the threat of a risky no deal as a way of trying to persuade MPs to vote for her plan.
Will May reopen talks with European leaders?
There are no immediate plans for May to talk with her continental counterparts in the first instance, as European leaders, increasingly frustrated by the lack of progress, want the prime minister to spell out what it would take to get the Brexit deal approved by parliament.
But at some point May will have to return to diplomacy – not least because hard Brexiters in her own party and the DUP – are still demanding changes to the withdrawal agreement, even if the EU says these are changes it does not want to make.