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After Brexit vote: No 10 draws up secret contingency plans

Olly Robbins, Theresa May’s EU emissary
One Whitehall source said Olly Robbins, Theresa May’s EU emissary, has been ‘on a mission’. Photograph: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Theresa May’s EU emissary, Olly Robbins, has been working up secret contingency plans for cross-party talks aimed at testing MPs’ backing for up to six different Brexit options were the prime minister to lose Tuesday’s vote by a significant margin, the Guardian has learned.

With parliament all but certain to reject her painstakingly negotiated deal in the “meaningful vote”, Robbins has been helping to scope out options for what happens next.

The border

Perhaps the most contentious issue. In order to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, a backstop arrangement that keeps the UK in the customs union and requires Northern Ireland to follow single market rules would prevail until a free-trade agreement is reached that avoids such a frontier.

The financial settlement

The UK and EU negotiators have agreed the former should honour those commitments it made while a member of the bloc – finally settling on a figure of £39bn.

Transition period

The deal would secure a status quo transition period to negotiate the nature of the future relationship, and during which the UK could begin to make trade deals with third countries.

Citizens' rights

A fraught issue at the outset, an agreement was reached relatively quickly that would see the UK respect the rights of EU citizens who arrive before the end of the transition period, which could be in 2022, and vice versa.

The future

The document is accompanied by a political declaration that sketches out the future relationship between the two parties – focusing primarily on trade and security.

One approach being seriously considered is a period of negotiation that could be overseen by civil servants, with the aim of testing which of up to six options could command a majority in the Commons.

“Olly has been on a mission,” said one Whitehall source. It has not yet been decided whether the government would open the door to direct talks with the Labour leadership over what should happen next – or seek to work through backbench channels, the Guardian understands.

Whitehall’s role could reflect that played by senior Cabinet Office civil servants, including the then cabinet secretary, the late Jeremy Heywood, during coalition talks after the 2010 general election, which resulted in the Conservative-Liberal Democrat alliance.

11.30am The Commons begins sitting. The first item is questions to Matt Hancock, the health secretary, and his ministerial team. These are meant to last 30 minutes but can run slightly over. Then the Labour MP Debbie Abrahams briefly introduces a private member’s bill on public sector supply chains under a 10-minute rule motion.

After midday If there are no urgent questions or ministerial statements to delay proceedings, the final day of debate on Theresa May’s Brexit deal – officially known as section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 – begins. It will be opened for the government by the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox.

Before 7pm May will make a final closing speech for the government, appealing for support for her deal.

From 7pm Voting begins. However, before the crucial vote, MPs must vote on the four amendments accepted by the Speaker. One amendment, tabled by the Tory Hugo Swire, has been accepted by the government.

At some point between around 7.30pm to 9.30pm MPs finally vote on the deal, as amended.

MPs could then vote on whatever Brexit plan emerged from the talks as most likely to command majority support – potentially including the Norway-style approach championed by the former Tory minister Nick Boles.

However, it is not expected that the process would consider options that involve reversing the referendum result.

May has given little indication even to her cabinet that she is willing to consider alternatives to her plan, and if she lost by a narrow margin could still decide to return to Brussels in a bid to tease out more concessions.

Tory backbenchers, and some cabinet ministers, would also be likely to react furiously if May made any direct overtures to Labour.

An amendment tabled by the Conservative backbencher Andrew Murrison is aimed at sending a signal to Brussels that MPs will only accept May’s deal with a time-limited backstop.

But if it failed to secure much support, it could suggest May’s next step must be more radical than a tweak to the backstop, if she wanted to secure backing for her deal – and Robbins is helping to examine how she could proceed.

May phoned trade union leaders, including Unite’s general secretary, Len McCluskey, last week – a move that both union sources and Jeremy Corbyn’s allies regarded as an attempt to signal a willingness to compromise with Labour.

Another source claimed May’s chief of staff, Gavin Barwell, had warned the prime minister that a permanent customs union would be the Labour leader’s “red line” for entering talks – something she remains reluctant to entertain.

Government strategists believe Corbyn wants to avoid being forced into supporting a second referendum – and hope he might seize on the option of helping to shape the Brexit deal instead.

Labour sources said they would be wary of entering into any kind of negotiation with the prime minister. Corbyn is likely to press ahead with calling a vote of no confidence in the government immediately if May were defeated on Tuesday night.

A Downing Street source said: “If we don’t win the vote tonight, we would have to make some decisions pretty quickly.”