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Brexit weekly briefing: Brussels says no to backstop concessions

Theresa May
Theresa May went to Brussels seeking further concessions in negotiations – and was humiliatingly rebuffed. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

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The briefing is taking a festive break for a fortnight. We’ll be back on 8 January, refreshed and raring to go for whatever fresh chaos Brexit may bring.

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Well, that all went well, didn’t it? At the end of a nightmare week, Theresa May headed to Brussels hoping for concessions that would help her get her Brexit deal past a mutinous parliament – and Brussels said no.

After postponing a Commons vote on the withdrawal agreement that she would clearly have lost, then emerging victorious, if weakened from an attempted Tory coup, the prime minister was told firmly that no legal guarantee limiting the unpopular Northern Ireland backstop to just 12 months would be forthcoming.

Instead, the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, and a succession of national leaders lined up to say it was hard to imagine any deal getting through parliament at the moment and that it was really up to May, not the EU, to find a Brexit consensus among rebellious MPs. Juncker said:

Our UK friends need to say what they want, rather than asking what we want. We would like in a few weeks for our UK friends to set out their expectations, because this debate is sometimes nebulous and imprecise and I would like clarifications.

The prime minister forcefully rejected the “nebulous” accusation, saying she had been “crystal clear”, but the 27 were themselves clear at the EU’s last summit of the year that there could be no further renegotiation. Britain’s botched attempt to contrive a last-minute EU rescue of the deal ended in humiliation.

Under pressure to give parliament a say on Brexit straight away, and with Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn tabling a no-confidence motion in the prime minister – accusing her of leading the UK into “national crisis”May told MPs “further clarification” on the backstop was possible.

She said more discussions with the EU would take place and, after a debate early in the new year, parliament would vote on the deal in the week of 14 January. (Brussels, of course, has repeatedly insisted that no further talks or clarification are planned.)

Meanwhile, amid ever increasing signs that the economy is starting to come under serious strain, the government has said it is significantly ramping up planning for a potential no-deal exit. The EU said its bare-bones no-deal plan would be published this week.

What next

Seeking a way out, several ministers, including the work and pensions secretary, Amber Rudd, and the business secretary, Greg Clark, are touting the option of inviting MPs to say what Brexit they would agree to in a series of so-called “indicative votes”.

Other options include what some hardline Brexiters misleadingly call a “managed no-deal”; a “Norway Plus” arrangement; the May package (probably only after a second Commons vote); and, despite what the prime minister says, a second referendum.

Several senior Tories favour another ballot on Brexit, and some observers argue that if MPs rejects the withdrawal agreement twice, a second referendum – between May’s deal and remain – may wind up being the prime minister’s least worst option.

My colleague Peter Walker has a run-down of how a second referendum might work (although Downing Street has, of course, denied that it is making plans for one).

Best of the rest

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In the Guardian, Arwa Mahdawi argues that when Americans want to understand Brexit, it’s clear Britain is in trouble:

I am not sure anyone’s brains can grasp what is happening in the UK at the minute; it defies all logic. As the Wall Street Journal put it: “From afar, the spectacle of the UK undergoing the national political equivalent of a nervous breakdown has been a source of head-scratching … The country once defined by its stiff upper lip has been indulging in a kind of orgy of public histrionics more commonly associated with Latin American telenovelas.” Certain parts of American society now feel a sort of exhausted solidarity with the UK, a relief that they are not the only ones whose country is a raging dumpster fire. A new sort of special relationship has been forged between the UK and the US; we are united by the fact that we have become global jokes.

Rafael Behr notes that with so little time left, there are now three places to go:

Option one: exit with a deal almost exactly like the one May has negotiated. Option two: membership of the EU – the best available outcome in strategic and economic terms, but one that incurs serious political cost by enraging already furious leavers. Option three: exit with no deal, an appalling idea recommended only by fools, liars and vandals. Option one requires approval of the withdrawal agreement and an implementation bill in parliament. Option two is reached by rescinding article 50, which should for democracy’s sake be done after a referendum. Option three involves carrying on as we are, bickering about process, failing to cross tribal party lines in pursuit of consensus, refusing to be honest about what is available. Those are the choices. They aren’t complicated. The EU identified them two years ago and spelled them out clearly. The British public is bored with watching their politicians arguing about the wrong questions. The EU is bored with watching British politicians refuse to level with the public about the right questions. Everyone should be afraid of what happens in the absence of clear answers, because disaster by inaction is the default option.

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Mr Gary Lineker, ladies and gentlemen: