Bristol schools at risk of closure amid falling pupil numbers and economic pressures
Bristol schools may be forced to close due to a falling birth rate and families moving away in search of cheaper housing. Council education bosses have said the closure of some primaries may be "unavoidable" as they are no longer sustainable.
Most at risk are those with just one form of entry which are unable shrink any smaller. Currently around 10 per cent of the city's 105 primary schools' reception classes are half full or less.
The issue is to be discussed by schools bosses and councillors next week. The accompanying report states: "Schools with intakes of 30 reception year pupils face greater risk from falling pupil numbers as PAN [published admission number] reductions are not viable. This means that the school risks possibility of becoming economically unsustainable. Permanent closure of schools and the disposal of their assets should be avoided, but in some cases this decision may be unavoidable."
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Since 2021, Bristol has closed two primary schools - St Pius X and St Barnabas - and amalgamated a further two - St Michael's on the Mount and St George to become Willow Park - due to falling demand. Meanwhile, what the council describes as a "significant" number of schools have reduced or consulted for future reductions in admission numbers, removing 390 reception places since 2019.
The reduction in required places is put down largely to a dropping birth rate. Based on latest birth projections, the city is forecast to have around 18% fewer school starters this year than the 2016 peak. The council also estimates there is a 15 per cent net migration of children out of the city between birth and starting school - believed to be largely down to families seeking bigger and cheaper homes further out.
This has led to there being an estimated 4,570 reception places needed over the course of this academic year. The city has capacity for 5,510, meaning a surplus of 940 places (17%).
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The council report says: "Despite some increase in pupil numbers from additional housing and a greater number of asylum seeker and refugee families, birth rates remain the greatest signifier for pupil planning. Births are set to continue to fall, indicating that the city will also experience a fall in primary school applications and a resultant increase in surplus places."
The report will be discussed at the Bristol Schools Forum next Tuesday.
It adds: "For communities the closure of a local school can be extremely damaging and have a long-lasting impact. Children are forced to travel further from home, increasing the number of car journeys and contributing to poorer air quality. It can also damage a child's sense of belonging to their local community and negatively impacting their life chances."