Yahoo News Forde Minutes: Conference tournament picks, sleepers and bubble teams to watch
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball (collapsible furniture sold separately in Iowa City):
[More Minutes: Tourney selection committee facing toughest job ever]
THE LITTLE DANCE, PART II
The Minutes continues a peerless, prescient preview of all the conference tournaments, including telling you who will win:
ATLANTIC-10
League Pomeroy ranking: 12th of 32.
Top seed: VCU (25-6 overall, 16-2 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: VCU is in regardless. Davidson and Dayton might have an outside chance for at-large consideration by making the tourney final. Everyone else has to win this tourney.
Sleeper: Rhode Island. The No. 8 seed finished the regular season on a four-game winning streak, including an upset win at Dayton, and split games against VCU.
Boss of the sidelines: Davidson’s Bob McKillop has been to eight NCAA tourneys, and 11 years ago he and this guard named Steph Curry took the Wildcats to within a shot of the Final Four.
Minutes pick: Davidson (21). The most accurate 3-point shooting team in the league during conference play has a chance to bomb its way into the Dance with three hot-shooting games in Brooklyn.
AMERICAN ATHLETIC
League Pomeroy ranking: Sixth of 32.
Top seed: Houston (29-2 overall, 16-2 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Houston, Cincinnati and Central Florida look like locks. Temple may have punched its ticket by winning six of its last seven. Everyone else needs to win the tourney.
Sleeper: Wichita State. A team loaded with newcomers lurched out to a 1-6 conference start, then won nine of its last 11.
Most intriguing early round matchup: A potential 4-5 UCF-Memphis game in the quarterfinals Friday.
Boss of the sidelines: Kelvin Sampson (Houston) and Gregg Marshall (Wichita) have been to the Final Four. But Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin has the longest active streak of NCAA tourney appearances — this year will be his ninth.
Minutes pick: Wichita State (22). The Shockers will have to make shots, which is no sure thing, but they’ll guard and board and make life difficult for anyone assigned to eliminate them.
ACC
League Pomeroy ranking: Third of 32.
Top seed: Virginia (28-2, 16-2 in league play).
NCAA tournament outlook: Virginia, North Carolina and Duke are all in and ticketed for high seeds. Florida State, Virginia Tech and Louisville are all in. Syracuse is likely in, thanks to a win at Duke that cancels out several bad losses. Clemson and North Carolina State are on the sketchiest side of the bubble. Everyone else must win the tourney.
Sleeper: Florida State has won 12 of its last 13 games and has the best field-goal percentage defense during league play.
Most intriguing early round matchup: Potential Syracuse-Duke quarterfinal. The expected return of Zion Williamson.
Boss of the sidelines: The only league in America where Roy Williams wouldn’t be the boss is this one, thanks to Mike Krzyzewski.
Minutes pick: Duke (23). After an injury-induced hiatus, the best team in America can get back to being the best team in America.
Big 12
League Pomeroy ranking: Second of 32.
Top seed: Kansas State (24-7, 14-4 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Kansas State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Baylor and Iowa State are all considered locks. Oklahoma, TCU and Texas are trying to talk their way in despite losing conference records. The other two have to win the tourney.
Sleeper: Oklahoma State. Yeah, it’s an extreme long shot for the ninth-place team to really upset the works. But the Cowboys won their final two games (Baylor, West Virginia), nearly had Kansas beaten in the game before that and took streaking Texas Tech to overtime in Lubbock on Feb. 27.
Most intriguing early round matchup: Dethroned No. 3 seed Kansas against bubblicious No. 6 seed Texas in the Thursday quarters, with the Longhorns getting back previously suspended leading scorer Kerwin Roach.
Boss of the sidelines: A whopping five coaches in the league have been to the Final Four. But the only one to cut down the nets there is Kansas’ Bill Self.
Minutes pick: Texas Tech (24). The Red Raiders are on a nine-game winning streak, most of them beatdowns, and have the No. 1 defense in America per Pomeroy.
Big East
League Pomeroy ranking: Fifth of 32.
Top seed: Villanova (22-9 13-5 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Villanova and Marquette are in. Some combination of the bland assemblage of second-tier teams (Creighton, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Xavier, Georgetown) will make it as well. The bottom tier needs to win the tournament.
Sleeper: After playing for three months like a team that acutely missed Chris Mack, Xavier has won six of its last seven and has beaten every team in the league but Marquette.
Most intriguing early round matchup: A potential St. John’s-Marquette quarterfinal. The Red Storm has somehow swept Marquette this year, and could be in need of one more big win to get in the field of 68.
Boss of the sidelines: That would be Jay Wright. No one else need apply.
Minutes pick: Xavier (25). This league has been a near-total flop, almost as bad as the Pac-12 with only a fraction of the criticism. Villanova and Marquette, the top two teams, are a combined 7-8 against the rest of the conference in February and March. Given the sprawling mediocrity, why not ride the hot team?
Big Sky
League Pomeroy ranking: 27th of 32.
Top seed: Montana (23-8, 16-4 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Winner only.
Sleeper: Eastern Washington. After hitting a low of No. 310 in the Pomeroy Ratings in early February, the Eagles have risen 60 spots while winning nine of their last 13.
Minutes pick: Northern Colorado (26). The second-seeded Bears had eventual tourney champion Montana all but beaten in the semis last year. They’ll finish the deal this time behind standout senior guard Jordan Davis.
Big Ten
League Pomeroy ranking: First of 32.
Top seed: Michigan State (25-6, 16-4 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Michigan State, Purdue and Michigan are in with high seeds secured. Wisconsin, Maryland and Iowa are in, with varying degrees of momentum (or lack thereof). Minnesota, Indiana and Ohio State are on the bubble and hoping nobody notices their losing league records. Everyone else must win out.
Sleeper: Indiana. America’s most controversial bubble team is also the Big Ten’s hottest team, having won four in a row to divert an irredeemable season toward redemption. If the Hoosiers win their first game (see below), they get a chance for the surprise hat trick vs. Michigan State.
Most intriguing early round matchup: Indiana-Ohio State in an 8 vs. 9, loser-leaves-Bracketville bubble battle.
Boss of the sidelines: John Beilein has done great work at Michigan. Tom Izzo has done better work at Michigan State, and swept the regular-season series between the two.
Minutes pick: Michigan State (27). The Spartans have the best player (Cassius Winston). They have the most efficient offense. They have had five games to figure out life without Nick Ward. All signs point to their first tourney title since 2016.
Big West
League Pomeroy ranking: 23rd of 32.
Top seed: UC Irvine (27-5, 15-1 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Winner only.
Sleeper: Fifth-seeded Long Beach State is the only conference team to beat Irvine, and the 49ers bring a five-game winning streak into the tourney.
Minutes pick: UC Irvine (28). There is some tortured Big West tourney history to overcome, but the Anteaters are the best and ready to make their first NCAA appearance in four years. They’re on a 13-game winning streak, the last seven all by double digits.
Conference USA
League Pomeroy ranking: 16th out of 32.
Top seed: Old Dominion (23-8, 13-5 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Winner only.
Sleeper: Marshall. Best offensive team in a league rife with problems on that end of the court. The Thundering Herd caught fire last year to win the C-USA tourney, and they enter this one on a five-game winning streak.
Minutes pick: Marshall (29). Jon Elmore reprises his starring March role of 2018.
Ivy League
League Pomeroy ranking: 13th of 32.
Top seed: Harvard (17-10, 10-4 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Winner only.
Sleeper: Penn. It’s only a four-team tournament, so there aren’t many choices. Take the team that is on a three-game winning streak.
Minutes pick: Yale (30). The Bulldogs have by far the highest ratings in overall efficiency and offensive efficiency. Some late stumbles, but they’ve dominated semifinal opponent Princeton and should take the measure of either Harvard or Penn in the final.
Mid-American
League Pomeroy ranking: Ninth of 32.
Top seed: Buffalo (28-3, 16-2 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Buffalo is a lock. Toledo has a slim at-large chance if it advances to the final and plays well against the Bulls. Everyone else needs to win the tourney.
Sleeper: At 25-6, Toledo isn't much of a sleeper. But there really only seem to be two teams that can win this thing, and the other is Buffalo.
Minutes pick: Buffalo (31). Two road losses by a total of six points, and 16 league wins. The Bulls have been dominant and should continue that in this tourney.
Mid-Eastern Athletic
League Pomeroy ranking: 32nd out of 32.
Top seed: Norfolk State (19-12, 14-2 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Winner only.
Sleeper: Howard won its last four games, capped by a road upset of league champion Norfolk State.
Minutes pick: Norfolk State (32). The Spartans have the No. 1 effective field-goal percentage in the MEAC, and also lead the league in two-point field-goal defense. Norfolk is ready to go dancing for the first time since the 2012 team pulled the memorable shocker of Missouri as a No. 15 seed.
Mountain West
League Pomeroy ranking: 10th of 32.
Top seed: Nevada (28-3, 15-3 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Nevada is in. Utah State seems a certainty as well. Everyone else needs to win out.
Sleeper: Fresno State. If anyone is capable of breaking up the Nevada-Utah State collision course it's the Bulldogs, who split a pair of one-point games against Utah State and would draw the Aggies in the semifinals if both advance.
Minutes pick: Nevada. (33) Will we take a third matchup between the Wolf Pack and Utah State, especially after the feistiness that marked the most recent meeting in Logan? Yes we will. But Nevada has the decided talent edge.
Pac-12
League Pomeroy ranking: Seventh of 32.
Top seed: Washington (24-7, 15-3 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: The Huskies had been presumed comfortably in as an at-large team, but three losses in the last eight and a paucity of quality wins raises questions. Second-seeded Arizona State has quality wins, but also a slew of terrible losses. Maybe Oregon could muster an argument by making the final. Everyone else definitely has to win the whole thing.
Sleeper: Oregon. They looked like dead Ducks after Bol Bol got hurt early and a 6-8 start in a horrible league. But they did win their last four games, including a convincing win at Washington.
Intriguing early round matchup: None. But a Colorado-Washington semifinal would be of interest. The Buffaloes have won eight of their last 10.
Boss of the sidelines: Oregon's Dana Altman is, sadly enough, the only coach in the league who has been to a Final Four.
Minutes pick: Oregon (34). Ducks are hot. Rest of the league is not. Somebody has to win.
Southeastern
League Pomeroy ranking: Fourth of 32.
Top seed: LSU (26-5, 16-2 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: LSU is in, unless a tenuous NCAA compliance situation gets worse and for some reason the Tigers do not participate in the Big Dance. Tennessee and Kentucky are in, and jockeying for potential No. 1 seeding. Auburn and Mississippi State are in, Mississippi is probably in, Florida and Alabama are living on the edge. Everyone else must win the tourney.
Sleeper: Bruce Pearl has an undistinguished 9-10 SEC tournament record, but the stars have aligned to give him a shot at a run this year. After an opening game against either Missouri or Georgia, Auburn draws South Carolina (the worst No. 4 seed in the power five) and then potentially an LSU team lacking a head coach and/or a starting guard.
Intriguing early round matchup: A Florida-LSU quarterfinal would be a rubber game between two teams that won in overtime on each other's home court. And the Gators will be highly motivated to get off the bubble and in the bracket.
Boss of the sidelines: Five coaches have been to the Final Four (Rick Barnes, Tom Crean, Ben Howland, Frank Martin and John Calipari) but only Cal has won it all.
Minutes pick: Kentucky (35). Assuming Reid Travis returns and contributes, the Wildcats have all the pieces to win this thing — and perhaps the next tournament as well.
Southland
League Pomeroy ranking: 29th of 32.
Top seed: Sam Houston State (21-10, 16-2 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Winner only.
Sleeper: Lamar has won eight straight after an 11-12 start, including a win over league champ Sam Houston.
Minutes pick: Sam Houston (36). Just two losses by a total of seven points since before Christmas. This is by far the best offensive team in league.
Southwestern Athletic
League Pomeroy ranking: 31st of 32.
Top seed: Prairie View A&M (19-12, 17-1 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Winner only.
Sleeper: Texas Southern isn't much of a sleeper, having won four of the last five tournaments and finishing second in the regular season. But really, this should be a two-team battle.
Minutes pick: Texas Southern (37). Prairie View has had a great league run, but the history of this league is that the regular-season champion usually loses in the tournament — it's happened 11 of the past 16 years. Mike Davis set the Jaguars up for long-term success, and successor Johnny Jones is poised to continue it.
Sun Belt
League Pomeroy ranking: 15th of 32.
Top seed: Georgia State (22-9, 13-5 in the league).
NCAA Tournament outlook: Winner only.
Sleeper: UT Arlington. This feels like a tournament that could be wide open, and Arlington has put together conference winning streaks of three, four and five games at various points. The Mavericks have won four in a row coming into the tourney.
Minutes pick: Georgia State (38). Ron Hunter has taken the Panthers to two of the past four NCAA tournaments. Make it three of five.
Western Athletic
League Pomeroy ranking: 14th of 32.
Top seed: New Mexico State (27-4, 15-1 in the league).
NCAA tournament outlook: Winner only.
Sleeper: Utah Valley. The Wolverines' only two losses in the last two months have both been to New Mexico State. Grand Canyon isn't far behind, either, but lost its last two regular-season games.
Minutes pick: New Mexico State (39). The last loss for the Aggies was on Jan. 3. They have dominated the league but also won a ton of close ones — they're 5-0 in league play in games decided by five points or less. There may be some tense moments in Las Vegas for the Aggies this week, but they should go dancing when all is said and done.
BUZZER BEATER
In honor of freshly minted SoCon champion Wofford: When in Greenville, South Carolina, which is neighbors with Wofford's locale of Spartanburg, The Minutes recommends a jaunt down the excellent Main Street and a stop at the Trappe Door (40). Get a burger and any of a million great Belgian-style beers (Chimay always recommended). Thank The Minutes later.
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