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If the Budget fails to make the NHS a priority, the Conservatives will deserve to be punished

Health services are the most important issue for the Chancellor to address in next week's Budget: Getty
Health services are the most important issue for the Chancellor to address in next week's Budget: Getty

There was a fuss in January this year when the Red Cross described the underfunding of the National Health Service as a “humanitarian crisis”. If the Government does not like that phrase, perhaps it will consider the measured comment by Professor Chris Ham of the King’s Fund, the health charity, this week: “In the 40 or more years I have worked with and for the NHS, I can’t remember a time when the government of the day has been so unwilling to act on credible evidence of service and funding pressures.”

In his spring Budget in March, Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, allocated just enough extra money to the NHS to prevent spending per person from falling, taking inflation into account. In his autumn Budget on Wednesday he needs to do much more.

This is what the people want. A BMG opinion poll exclusively for The Independent, which we report today, finds that the health service is far and away the most favoured priority for the Chancellor: 64 per cent name it as one of the top three priorities, twice as many as the next most popular option, tax cuts for people on low and middle incomes.

And yet it has been reported that, at a party-political session of the Cabinet on Tuesday, Gavin Barwell, the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, set out what the Conservatives’ main campaign messages were. He said: homes, schools and colleges and the environment. No mention of health or social care. No wonder some cabinet ministers were left scratching their heads.

Of course, the housing problem – if the Government does not like the word “crisis” – is important. The Independent welcomes Theresa May’s rhetorical commitment to tackling it, at least, although we remain sceptical about whether the measures in the Budget will match up to the scale of the challenge. But a competent Government ought to be able to handle more than one policy at a time.

Building more houses should not be an alternative to adequately funding the NHS. Housing is capital spending that produces an income stream and for which borrowing is justified – including borrowing by local government. It should not take away resources that are urgently needed to provide the quality of healthcare that people are entitled to expect.

Professor Ham points out that “on three previous occasions – 1974, 1988 and 2000 – Conservative and Labour governments heeded warnings of an impending crisis, and found extra resources”, and asks what more evidence the Government needs to ease the stringency of the past seven years.

Ms May has, in effect, conceded the argument piecemeal. She claims that she wants mental health care to have parity with the care of physical illnesses, and yet this has so far been funded with words rather than money. Her ill-fated election manifesto accepted that social care needed fundamental reform, even if the form proposed proved unpopular.

Yet this week Damian Green, the First Secretary of State, quietly released a statement deferring the publication of a social care green paper until the summer of next year.

The political danger of the squeeze on social care was highlighted this week by a study suggesting that 45,000 more people had died since 2010 than would have been expected on the trend of previous years when spending was rising faster. The study does not prove cause and effect, but it seems reasonable to think that better social care would allow more old people to live longer.

Britain can afford to build houses and turn round its public services, especially if, as The Independent has argued consistently, we are prepared to raise taxes. If the Government fails to increase NHS funding significantly on Wednesday, it will deserve to be punished.