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Cambridge scientists fear coronavirus second wave as 'R' rate rises across UK

A poster in Leicester, where local lockdown restrictions have been imposed, urges people to keep their distance to stem the spread of the virus - Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP
A poster in Leicester, where local lockdown restrictions have been imposed, urges people to keep their distance to stem the spread of the virus - Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP
Coronavirus Article Bar with counter
Coronavirus Article Bar with counter

Fears of a second wave of coronavirus in the UK have been raised by Cambridge University scientists, who have warned that the reproduction 'R' rate is now close to one in every part of the country.

Four out of seven English regions have seen a rise in the rate of infections, with the south-east and south-west now thought to be above 'R1', meaning the virus is spreading exponentially.

NHS leaders have said there is "a very high" level of concern about a looming spike in cases, as well as worries about how the health service will cope this winter.

Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, is said to be worried that a second wave could arrive in the next fortnight after warning that it is already happening across Europe (see video below).

The Cambridge MRC Biostatistics Unit said it is now "very likely" that reproduction rates are close to one in most regions of England, which scientists blamed on the lifting of lockdown measures.

If the 'R' value rises above one, it means every person who contracts coronavirus passes it on to more than one person, leading to an escalation in cases. If 'R' remains below one, the virus is in retreat.

The Cambridge scientists estimate that the rate is now 1.04 in the south-west, when two weeks ago the rate there was the second lowest. It is 1.02 in the south-east, where it was 0.92 a fortnight ago.

Other regions are showing 'R' rates of 0.9 or above – in the north-east and Yorkshire the rate is 0.90, while in the north-west and in London the estimated rate is 0.92. The lowest rate is in the Midlands (0.78), with the east of England at 0.88.

Second coronavirus wave - three scenarios
Second coronavirus wave - three scenarios

On Wednesday, Niall Dickson, the chief executive of the NHS Confederation, which represents hospitals and other health services, said senior managers were extremely worried that a surge in cases was imminent.

He told the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Coronavirus: "I would say in relation to the second spike issue ... the levels of concern among our members – the people who are leading NHS trusts, who are leading in primary care and all levels in the systems – is very high.

"I mean, of course, there's real concern about winter and the compounding factors there, but also about an earlier spike."

Scientists said the lifting of lockdown measures meant Britain was now "facing a comeback of community transmission".

Professor Jose Vazquez-Boland, the chair of infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh, said it was likely that new peaks in incidence were ahead.

He said: "What we are facing is a comeback of community transmission after removing the lockdown measures. We have to be clear that the efficacy of lockdowns is only temporary. There will be a resurgence of new cases every time social restriction measures are lifted as long as the virus remains in circulation."

The Cambridge estimates suggest around 3,000 new infections daily, up from the current rolling daily average of 725, which has risen steadily from a low point of 546 on July 5.

The scientists also predict between 43 and 84 daily deaths by mid-August. The seven-day rolling average currently stands at 66 deaths per day.

Professor James Naismith, the director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said that without better isolation of cases Britain could face "an unfolding tragedy" and added: "Although the current testing regime does not catch every positive case, we do have much better sight of the virus.

"We and other countries are detecting young people with Covid-19 – in February, we never noticed them. It seems likely that the virus spreads in this group first, but with few symptoms and little illness.

"We know the virus will spread in time from young to old/more vulnerable, where we will see hospitalisation, severe illness and death. This will happen in a few weeks if we don't keep the virus suppressed.

"What I fear is that if we fail to check this flare-up we will head into the winter months with a high level of circulating virus. With the normal winter illnesses and greater indoor living, we could then see a return to exponential growth in Covid-19 cases that overwhelms the NHS and requires complete lockdown. This is what I term a second wave."

On Tuesday Mr Johnson said that "clearly we now face, I'm afraid, the threat of a second wave in other parts of Europe and we just have to be vigilant".

A Downing Street spokesman said on Wednesday: "The Prime Minister is clear we must remain vigilant and continue to follow the official guidance to keep the virus under control and prevent any second wave."