Canada could see 22,000 coronavirus deaths even with physical distancing, officials say

Canada could suffer as many as 22,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic, even with strict physical distancing and the widespread closure of businesses and schools, Canadian public health officials have warned.

Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday that he remained confident that Canadians could continue their “disciplined” behaviour, including staying home and practicing social distancing.

“We have the chance to determine what our country looks like in the weeks and months to come. Our healthcare systems across the country are coping for the time being, but we’re at a fork in the road, between the best and the worst possible outcomes,” the prime minister said. “The best possible outcome is no easy path for any of us.”

Canada had recorded nearly 20,000 cases of the coronavirus and 461 fatalities.

The coronavirus projections coincided with the release of the country’s March job reports, which found that more than 1 million Canadians had lost work – highlighting the steep cost Canada and other nations face as they attempt to reconcile economic resilience with public health.

The government has been under mounting pressure in recent weeks to release the models and projections being used to guide decision-making on a national level.

But experts advising the prime minister cautioned against reading too deeply into the numbers.

“It’s important to recognize that models are not a crystal ball and cannot predict what will happen,” Dr Theresa Tam, the country’s public chief health officer told reporters on Thursday.

At least seven provinces released their own projections in the past week. Ontario, the most populous, warned 3,000 to 15,000 deaths were possible with the current trajectory of the virus.

The prime minister’s remarks came as 81 deaths were announced in the last 24 hours – by far the deadliest day yet for the country.

Cases are doubling every three to five days, which Tam said remains a positive sign.

While cases have continued to surge in Ontario and Quebec, Tam cautioned it remained “too early” know how close the country was to reaching its peak.

Experts say Canada could experience more than 30,000 cases by next week, with as many as 700 deaths.

In their modeling, health officials assume between 934,000 and 1.9 million people could become infected with Covid-19 – a best-case scenario. Between 11,000 and 22,000 could die of the virus.

In the absence of strict control measures, experts fear the epidemic quickly overwhelm even the best-prepared healthcare systems across the country, killing as many as 300,000 Canadians – roughly equivalent to the number of deaths from all causes each year in the country.

The prime minister urged Canadians to continue staying at home as much as possible.

On Wednesday, Trudeau ended his own self-isolation – which started in mid-March after his wife, Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, tested positive for the coronavirus. He attended his first in-person cabinet meeting on Wednesday but said that he would continue to work from home.

Related: Canada nursing home reels from death of almost half its residents

Trudeau has warned residents in recent days to expect “many more weeks” of distancing measures – a message echoed by the country’s top doctor.

“While some of the numbers today may seem stark, Canada’s modeling demonstrates the country still has an opportunity to control the epidemic and save lives,” said Tam. “We cannot prevent every death. But we must prevent all the deaths that we can.”