Chagos deal in doubt after Trump victory
Donald Trump is set to stop Britain’s deal to give away the Chagos Islands when he returns to the White House following criticism from Republicans.
Senior Republican members of Congress warned that giving the islands to Mauritius could boost China when the deal was unveiled last month.
The Telegraph understands that Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader who is friends with Trump, has voiced criticism of the move to members of his team.
Legal advice questioning the wisdom of the move is also being pushed in Trump circles by pro-Brexit figures from the UK.
While an agreement in Mauritius was announced in October, uncertainty remains over the outcome as the treaty that needs to be signed to legally enforce the change is still being negotiated.
Joe Biden, the outgoing US president, had thrown support behind the deal. Should Trump hold a different position it could complicate efforts to lock in the agreement.
The area is just one of a number of foreign policy complexities now facing Sir Keir Starmer’s government as the world prepares for a second Trump presidency.
The Chagos Islands are a cluster of about 60 islands in the Indian Ocean, and are of geopolitical significance given their closeness to south-east Asia.
They include the tropical atoll of Diego Garcia, used by the US government as a military base for long-range aircraft and navy ships, meaning Washington has a keen interest in the area.
Sir Keir’s government agreed to give up sovereignty of the islands and hand them over to Mauritius, with an agreement in principle announced on Oc 3.
The Conservatives were fiercely critical of the move despite pursuing their own negotiations with Mauritius when in government, and accused Sir Keir of caving in to pressure.
The agreement was understood to include letting the Americans continue to use the Diego Garcia for generations to come. A treaty, not yet published or approved, will spell out specific agreements.
Senior Republican figures in both the Senate and the House of Representatives criticised the deal when it was unveiled.
Michael McCaul, a House of Representatives member from Texas who chairs the foreign affairs committee, said the Diego Garcia base was essential to countering China.
He added: “The [Biden] administration must ensure that US security interests in the Indo-Pacific are protected by this agreement.”
‘Chinese lawfare’
James Risch, the Idaho senator and Trump supporter who is a senior member of the Senate foreign relations committee, said the deal “gives in to Chinese lawfare”.
He added that it “yields to pressure from unaccountable international institutions like the International Court of Justice at the expense of US and UK strategic and military interests”.
Marco Rubio, the Florida senator who once sought the Republican presidential nomination, said the move was “concerning as it would provide an opportunity for communist China to gain valuable intelligence on our naval support facility in Mauritius”.
Critics of the deal from Britain also appear to be trying to bend Trump’s ear.
Mr Farage, who has enjoyed access to Trump and his inner circle ever since publicly campaigning for him during the 2016 US presidential race, is said to have raised his concerns about the proposal to figures in the Trump campaign in recent weeks.
Legal advice disputing whether Britain should have to give up the Chagos Islands – as has been claimed by some international legal bodies – is being pushed in Trump circles by pro-Brexit figures from the UK.
Mr Trump’s personal view on the issue is unclear. Should he voice criticism, Britain’s hopes of signing a formal treaty with Mauritius in the coming months could become harder to deliver.
Richard Tice, the Reform deputy leader, urged the incoming US president to oppose the deal when he enters the White House once again in January 2025.
Mr Tice said: “I hope this now means the Chagos deal is toast. It was a bad deal. I hope the new US administration turns it over and says ‘over our dead body’.”
Whitehall has for months been considering the policy implications of a second Trump presidency for the UK specifically as well as the wider world.
Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, said earlier this year that she would want to restart talks for a new UK-US free trade deal if Trump won office.
Ms Reeves told The Telegraph in February: “We would look to do deals around the world, including with [the US] but also with Canada. And that deal obviously broke down recently.”
The Business Department is said to have worked up contingency plans for Trump’s stated policy of bringing in a tariff of up to 20 per cent on imported goods.
During the first Trump presidency tariffs became a point of contention between Theresa May’s government and the White House, not least when the US raised them on British steel imports.
There could also be renewed pressure from Washington for increased defence spending, with Mr Trump consistently pressing allies to spend more on the military and be less reliant on the US.
Sir Keir has said he wants to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP – up from the current 2 per cent target – but has given no timings on achieving the ambition.
Rishi Sunak had promised to hit 2.5 per cent defence spending by 2030 when he was prime minister, but Sir Keir has abandoned the Tories’ timings on the plan.